Social Capital Arbitrage
Have been thinking about this concept a lot the last couple of days because of the loud presale...
On one side of the aisle you have people moral grandstanding, effectively saying they're above picking up free money. On the other, people ravenously spamming like they're 2 weeks behind on rent.
What doesn't make sense to me is why it was loud that caused so much of a fever pitch. The presale allocation was 0.2SOL...so like $30.
Even at a 100x (implied 15m mcap) that's only $3k. Yet there are TONS of other mindshare boards offering incentives >= $3k *every single month* with very low levels of competition.
Take Polkadot for example. Last month I got $10k in DOT. This month I'll get somewhere around $5k just for posting a few updates above governance and some gaming stuff about the Mythos chain.
Those posts were objectively more useful for my audience than loudio stuff...and barely took more effort to produce...and had greater EV (if you really think the loudio presale is going to be a free $5-10k I would question your critical thinking ability)...yet barely anyone is willing to put in the (minimal) effort to farm those incentives.
Why is that? Is it because this was a shorter term game with fast resolution? Was it because people really didn't even know what they were signing up for and the elusive/speculative nature of it was more intersting than a known, but still lucrative, incentive? Is it because people really think this is going to 1000x out of the gate?
I feel like there must be some way to play this perceived social capital market inefficiency...aka the Social Capital Arbitrage, but I still haven't figured out exactly to take a position.
Anyway, thanks for listening to my late evening rambling. Looking forward to the loud launch in a few hours. Should be fun
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