
预言家毛毛
预言家毛毛
“币圈解码者,技术剖K线,人性观潮涌。爆仓铸铁律,归零炼心性。专猎趋势拐点,左侧预警,右侧狙击。不避风浪,授你造方舟。共赴周期星辰,猎杀市场确定性。✨”
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$O
All-in is a kind of wisdom
All-in is a kind of courage
All-in is a realm
Ordinary people don't understand
Newbies don't understand
Only the truly strong
Only the true warriors
Truly understand the essence of going all-in
Now
Is the time to go all-in
Now
Is the time to take down the dog manipulators
When the dog manipulators crash the market
We take over the chips
When the dog manipulators wash the market
We add to our positions
The dog manipulators want us to be fearful
We choose to be greedy
The dog manipulators want us to cut losses
We choose to go all-in
Oppose the dog manipulators head-on
Fight the dog manipulators to the end
Let's see who outlasts whom
Let's see who laughs last
0.52 of $O
All-in
Full position
Not selling
If you dare, crash it
If you dare, zero it out
I will accompany you to the end
I'm not afraid
I have patience
I have faith
Dog manipulators, listen up
Your chips
We took them
Your schemes
We saw through them
Your market washouts
Are useless
Today
We must unite
Today
We must all go all-in together
Today
We must defeat the dog manipulators
Today
We must become our own manipulators
All-in
Just do it
Win the clubhouse models
Lose, go work at sea
Not afraid at all
Just do it
Down with the dog manipulators
We will surely win
We will definitely win
We will definitely get rich

Pinned
$O $O
Strongly bullish on O! Just go all in and that's it!
From 0.4 to 0.49, the rise is too fierce!
Go all in at this position, don't hesitate even a bit!
Firmly bullish, this wave will keep pushing up!
Don't overthink it, just go all in!
Go all in at 0.49, definitely make big money!
Strongly bullish, a huge surge is coming next!
Go all in with full position, just do it!
This rally is just getting started, going all in is right!
Firmly bullish on O, just go all in!
Don't be scared, just go all in, win the club's models!
Strongly bullish, going all in is the way!
If you feel tough enough, leave a mark!
For those going all in together, recommend to your brothers!
$O
#沃什FOMC首秀:降息当真推迟至2027年?
#双线建仓增持ETH,机构定价周期开启
#SpaceX市值超微软:全球第四大公司

Pinned
$MOVE
I just rubbed my eyes and sat up, and seeing MOVE's spike straight up scared me wide awake. I spilled the soy milk in my hand all over my pants. This isn't a coin; it's a meat grinder designed specifically to harvest gamblers. Those shouting in the group yesterday "doubling is just the beginning, aiming for 0.05"—are they lining up on the rooftop now? Don't talk to me about some mystical guidance. Open your eyes and look at the 1-hour chart: the SUPERTREND line is like a heavy iron plate pressing down hard at 0.01575. The price gets bounced away even if it just touches it. The MA5 has crossed below MA10 and MA20 forming a death cross, and all three moving averages are turning sharply downward. Is this guidance? This is clearly pointing you to the underworld!
That spike that hit 0.02183 just now—how many people got tricked into chasing the high? Let me tell you, this is the most vicious way to dump coins in the crypto world, bar none. The main force didn't spend much money; they used matched orders to instantly pump it up, then placed tens of thousands of sell orders at the high. You see the fast rise, get impulsive, and rush in to take the bags. They dump all their coins on you, then flip to short, killing both longs and shorts, making a fortune while you stand guard on the mountaintop, exposed to wind and rain. I've traded crypto for years and have seen this pattern of a spike doubling then crashing through the floor many times. Whenever this happens, the price falls at least 70% afterward, no exceptions.
A bit of behavioral insight: why did you get fooled by this spike? Because your greed and wishful thinking are at play. You see others doubling in a day and get itchy, thinking you can catch this wave too, without considering the risks. The main force knows this psychology well—they know you like chasing highs and selling lows, so they paint this big pie to lure you in willingly. Think about it: would a real bull coin pump like this? Real bull coins rise slowly, step by step. Any coin that shoots straight up like this is a trap, no exceptions.
A bit of metaphysics: from the lowest point 0.01094 to the highest 0.02183 is exactly double, no more, no less. There's a strict rule in crypto: any coin that doubles in one hourly candle will inevitably fall back to the starting point or even lower. Also, today is Wednesday, the official dump day in crypto. Nine out of ten major crashes happen on Wednesdays. This drop has perfect timing, place, and people aligned—no one can stop it. Look at the candlestick shape—isn't it like a sharp sickle? The main force has sharpened the sickle, just waiting for you chives to stick your necks out.
Using what I learned in medical school back then: this spike is like a person having a sudden heart attack, heart rate shooting over 200, then sudden cardiac arrest. Although revived by electric shock, they're now a vegetable, never waking up again. The MACD just turned down, the green bars are slowly lengthening, like an ECG line flattening out. Volume has shrunk this much, meaning no funds want to come in to take the bags. Next is a slow decline, dropping a little every day, grinding you down to despair, then on the day you cut losses, they'll hit you with a big bearish candle.
Also, didn't you see the platform warning? A large batch of coins will unlock this week. MOVE, as a newly listed coin, will face even greater unlocking pressure. Early investors bought in at just a few cents; even if it drops to 0.001, they still make tenfold profits. Do you think they won't dump? They are eager to convert their coins into real cash. If you buy in now, you're just the bag holder helping these early investors achieve financial freedom while you end up heavily in debt.
I'll be clear about my position: I opened a half position short at 0.014. If it rebounds to 0.0145, I'll go all in short, not leaving a penny. Stop loss is set at 0.0158; if it breaks this, I'll cut losses immediately, no nonsense. First take-profit target is 0.011; I'll sell 20% to lock in profits. Second target is 0.01. Before the end of the month, I bet it will touch 0.008. Then I'll decide whether to close the position.
I know the comment section will be full of trapped holders cursing me for being bearish to scoop cheap chips. Say whatever you want. I've laid out my position, entry, stop loss, and take profit clearly here. I put real money in; if I lose, I bear it myself. If I profit, you don't owe me a cent. Those shouting to buy the dip, show your positions with screenshots. Don't just bang on the keyboard. Prove yourself with real stuff.
One last warning: run now, as fast as you can. Don't have any illusions, don't try to bottom fish—that's suicide. This thing will drop so hard you'll question your life. If you don't run now, in a few days you'll be eating instant noodles every day, not even able to afford pork knuckles rice. Don't say I didn't warn you.
$MOVE
Pinned
$ETH
I'll put my words here today, Ethereum is now a downward trend, any rebound is a short opportunity to send you money, but if you dare to buy the bottom and go long now, within three days, you will definitely lose so much that you can't even sleep. You yourself stared at these two 30-minute lines to look at them, from the high of 2404 a guilty smash down, the lowest to 2263, fell almost 140 points in one day, and all the retail investors who chased the high breakthrough died on the top of the mountain, now this point rebounded, even the integer mark of 2300 is not stable, the current price of 2295 is just pressed by the EMA20 moving average, even the edge of the super trend line 2313 can not be touched, the take profit level of SAR is stuck at 2309, from 2350 to 2400, It is all densely packed waiting to be untied and run away, and countless people will smash the market and ship it if it rises by one point. You look at the volume again, when the market is smashed, it is a sky-high transaction, and when it rebounds, the volume can shrink like a mosquito, it is clear that there is no incremental funds to enter the market to take over, the main goods are all out, and there is not even the slightest meaning of protecting the disk, this is the most typical downward relay, if you don't go short now, when it breaks the low of 2263 and accelerates down, you will chase the short, and you can't even drink a mouthful of hot soup.
To put it bluntly, you may not like to listen to it, from a metaphysical point of view, the bulls have no way to survive from the beginning. The main force chose to pull to the high point of 2404 in the afternoon before the weekend of the 27th, which was obviously the greed of retail investors who calculated the good news of the weekend, and specially chose this time point to deceive the cannon, deceiving all the people who chased the breakthrough into taking over, smashing the board and running away with the backhand, and not having a good heart from the root. Looking at these numbers again, the high point is 2404, the homonym is "you die or die", you don't answer the signal that you hand over the road, you have to rush in, the low point is 2263, to put it bluntly, it is "two or two losses", two people go in to buy the bottom, both people have to leave the market, even the current price of 2295 is a dead signal of "two taels will lose". Not to mention that in the big cycle, the 7th, 90th, and 180th days are all green declines, and there is only a small red line of 30 days left for you to draw a cake, and the general trend is all downward, relying on the rebound of this small cycle, you can't turn over any waves at all. There is also the high point of 2404, which is just 4 points above the 2400 integer mark, which is to deceive those retail investors who make technical breakthroughs, and sweep the stop loss disk and smash it directly.
Let me tell you the most down-to-earth one, taking the human body as an analogy, Ethereum's current state is that he just came out of the emergency room after a myocardial infarction, and it looked like there was a heartbeat, but in fact, all the blood vessels in the body were blocked, and there could be another big problem at any time. Previously, the wave from around 2200 to 2400 was like a person with a weak body, holding on to running a marathon, all relying on an obsession to hang, looking at the rally gratifyingly, in fact, the inside had long lost stamina, and as a result, the moment he rushed to 2404, he directly did not come up in one breath, and the myocardial infarction occurred on the spot, and the big yin line directly smashed through all the moving average supports, just like blocking all the blood supply blood vessels in the whole body, and the qi and blood could not be supplied at all. Now this rebound is a temporary heartbeat after rescue, looking at the K-line with ups and downs, in fact, it has not recovered at all, the short-term moving average is all short arrangements, EMA5 and even EMA10 are not stable, just like people can't even stand, all rely on ventilators to hang their lives. If you rush in and go long now, it is equivalent to pouring a big tonic soup on a person who has just had a myocardial infarction, not only can't save it, but also has to put all your principal in, this trend is behind it is slowly falling, just like a person has a chronic disease, and your principal is consumed little by little, and when you react, you are already trapped to death, and you can't even cut the meat.
I know that there must be many people who are not convinced, and they want to raise the bar with me, saying that the Ethereum spot ETF has had a net inflow for three consecutive weeks, and that Ethereum is a mainstream currency that can't fall, so I will ask you, if you really want to pull the market, the main force will give you such a cheap price of 2295, so that you can comfortably buy the bottom? If you really want to rise, you will die on the top of the mountain with a full set of people chasing 2400 highs, and you won't even give a chance to solve it? The main force has never been a philanthropist, and it will not carry a sedan chair for retail investors, it is to cut leeks for you who are taking chances. If you don't believe it, let's put it here, and now if you dare to go long, you won't lose more than 20 points within three days, I don't believe it. Now short selling, you are on the side of the main force to pick up money, now go long, you are the receiver who sends money to the main force, don't wait until the principal is lost by most of the principal, and you will regret not listening to me at the beginning, and then cry, it will be too late for anything.
$ETH




$SPCX
This one is especially strong, with potential between 500~1000,
after all, who can build rockets
who can do things that change the world and humanity
just like Bitcoin back in the day
Direction: Long. Holding a four-layer base position for the long term, currently with a slight floating profit of 2%.
In the early years, I stepped into countless big traps with equity tokens, always used to short-term speculation to make a quick profit and run, unable to see the long-term value of projects.
Panicked and cut losses at small pullbacks, only to regret not holding with a broader vision when the long-term doubled market came later.
Gradually realized: targets supported by hardcore real industries cannot be viewed with short-term dog trading mentality; every dip is an opportunity to add positions in batches, don’t get shaken out by short-term volatility.
Now, let's talk about the current market and fundamental logic.
SPCX is benchmarked against SpaceX, a real aerospace company with a very high industry ceiling. Starlink, Starship, and Mars plans form a complete long-term storyline, with huge long-term valuation imagination space; 300 or 500 is not just empty talk.
Technically, the previous high was 239.42, falling all the way to a low of 120.27. After overselling, the bottom stabilized and reversed. Recently, volume rebounded sharply to 190.17, now at 179.59 retesting short-term moving averages MA10 and MA20 forming strong support.
SUPERTREND resistance is at 215.44, the first stage breakout target; core support below is 172, as long as it doesn’t break, the long-term bullish trend remains intact.
Short term, first watch for reclaiming and holding above 215 resistance; mid-term target is above 300; long term looks at the 500 range.
Finally, let's talk about position management and mindset control.
Real equity targets have less volatility than dog tokens but still should not go all in. Total position is allocated in four layers, base position laid out around 175, with two more flexible layers added at 172 support.
Long-term stop loss is uniformly set at 150; only exit if it completely breaks the bottom range; all short-term pullbacks in between are ignored.
Mentally, abandon short-term speculation thinking; don’t frequently trade due to daily few-point ups and downs; the aerospace sector is a cross-cycle long-term market.
True big gains are always made by those who can hold quality targets.
$BTC
$SPCX




$BASED
Direction: Long. Holding a three-layer base position, currently floating profit is 18%.
The most painful pitfalls I've stepped on over the years all came from these kinds of oversold rebound new coins.
In the early years, being inexperienced, I saw coins drop more than half from their highs and subjectively assumed the bottom was reached, hastily going all-in to catch the bottom, always hoping to catch a big rebound for a double-up.
But during the decline, there were continuous shakeouts; the more I averaged down, the bigger the losses, until my mindset collapsed and I cut losses to exit. Right after selling, the price rebounded immediately, causing losses on both ends.
After falling into countless traps, I finally realized: during a downtrend, don’t guess the bottom. You must wait for the bottom consolidation to complete, moving averages to turn, and volume to stabilize before entering in batches. No signal, no action.
Now, let's talk about the current market.
BASED's previous high was 0.328, with a low of 0.07324, a huge drop, and the bearish selling pressure has basically been fully released.
Intraday, it started from the low and surged to 0.11038, a 19.50% increase in 24 hours, with volume expanding simultaneously, clearly indicating new capital inflow.
Current price is 0.09394, with MA5, MA10, and MA20 intertwined supporting the bottom, short-term support is solid, representing a normal pullback phase after a surge.
The first short-term resistance is the intraday high of 0.11038; once it breaks and holds above, the next target is around 0.15. On the downside, strong support is at 0.078; breaking below this invalidates the current rebound trend.
Finally, about position sizing and mindset.
New coins are highly volatile and should not be heavily leveraged. I control my total position in three layers, building positions in batches around 0.084, and when it surges near 0.11, I reduce half my position to take profits.
Stop loss is strictly set at 0.073; if support breaks, exit unconditionally, never stubbornly hold losses.
Remember two points for mindset: oversold rebounds only earn short-term profits from emotional recovery; don’t blindly fantasize about new highs. If the trade is wrong, cut losses decisively; don’t let short-term traps turn into long-term holdings.
Trading is a long-term game; surviving in the market for the long haul is far more important than one-time huge profits.
$BASED
$O
Tonight, the Dragon Boat Festival fireworks gradually subside, and the noise slowly dies down.
Most people have already put down their screens and are enjoying the remaining leisure of the holiday.
Only I am still focused on this 30-minute K-line, scrutinizing the opportunities belonging to O.
This round, I firmly choose to go long again, aiming for a short-term profit of 22 points.
Then patiently hold on, and once again test the previous high of 0.9169.
Looking back on the journey, I have suffered many grievances in short-term coins.
Whenever I encountered this kind of surge and pullback pattern, I always panicked and hurriedly exited.
Selling repeatedly at temporary lows, I could only regret deeply afterward.
After countless losses, I gradually saw through the market’s tricks.
The main force deliberately creates a false pullback during holidays when people’s attention is scattered.
The purpose is to wash out traders who lack stable mentality and long-term perseverance.
Currently, the price hovers at 0.7719, and the overall trend has stabilized.
After the moving averages intertwine, they begin to provide upward support; the downward momentum has already exhausted.
MACD remains in the bullish zone, ready to start a new round of rally at any time.
The support at 0.66 is firmly held; the bottom chips are fully locked in.
The selling pressure above has been fully released after a round of pullback.
Next, we just need to steady our mindset and quietly wait for the second round of rally to arrive.
Regarding position size, I still maintain a conservative approach, entering with a 30% base position.
Wait for the price to pull back near 0.73, then moderately add another 20% position.
Strictly control the overall position within 50%, never impulsively go all-in.
Set stop loss at 0.64; once the support is broken, exit decisively.
In the end, trading is never about momentary aggressive courage.
It’s about knowing how to make choices, holding onto your true self, and controlling your greed.
You can fully relax during the holiday, but we must not lose the rhythm of making money.
Keep your pace steady; the market will reward accordingly sooner or later.
$O
$RE
For this wave of $RE, I am firmly only going long. For short-term, conservatively secure a 30-point profit as a base; for swing trading, hold steady and aim to push towards the 1-dollar whole number mark. Once a new coin's trend starts, its explosive power will always exceed your expectations.
To be honest, I've stepped into more traps with new coins in the early years than anyone else. When I first got into new coins, seeing a strong rise would make me impulsively go all in, always thinking I could ride the entire upward wave. But then, sudden sharp corrections would hit me dizzyingly; I couldn’t even set stop losses in time and got deeply trapped, shaking when cutting losses. Sometimes I’d take profits after just a small gain of a dozen points, scared to hold on, only to watch the price double afterward, regretting it deeply. After years of experience, I realized that succeeding in new coin markets isn’t about being brave; it’s about catching the rhythm, following the money flow, not blindly chasing highs or exiting too early, and sticking to your trading principles to secure the most stable profits.
Back to the current market, the 1-minute chart is very clear: from a low of 0.42, it has steadily risen to 0.82, with a single-day increase exceeding 57 points. Volume has been strong throughout; this is not a rally driven by retail investors following the crowd—it's obvious that big money is operating powerfully. Now it’s slightly pulling back and stabilizing around 0.78, with the SUPERTREND indicator firmly supporting the price. All short-term moving averages are trending upward, providing support. The MACD is just briefly consolidating and gathering strength. After washing out floating positions, the second wave of rally could start at any time. Once the hype for a new coin heats up, capital attention only grows, and once a trend forms, it won’t stop easily.
Finally, a practical reminder: strictly control your position size. Enter with 30% base capital first; if it pulls back to around 0.72, you can add another 20%. Total position must never exceed 50%. Set your stop loss at the key support level of 0.5; if it breaks, exit decisively—don’t hold onto any luck. Keep your mindset calm: new coins are volatile, so don’t get restless and want to run after a few points rise, nor panic and cut losses overnight after a slight pullback. In trading, it’s never about luck; it’s about whether you can maintain your rhythm, hold onto the profits you should earn, endure normal fluctuations, and always prioritize risk. Only then can you survive long-term in this market.
$RE
$O
Direction: Long. Currently holding a small floating loss of 0.2% in a three-layer base position layout.
Speaking of these short-term explosive coins, I've stepped into many traps. In the early days, seeing a straight line surge would make me impulsively chase in, always thinking it could keep rising and double, but every time I caught it halfway through the pullback after the peak. Watching the price slide down, I was reluctant to cut losses, the longer I held, the bigger the loss, and I ended up selling at the lowest point. Later, I also made the mistake of bottom-fishing too early, thinking it was the right time after a slight drop, rushing in, only to find there was still a lower bottom, and the more I added, the more trapped I became. After countless pitfalls, I realized: don’t chase highs or guess bottoms in short-term coins; wait for a pullback to stabilize before acting, set stop losses properly, and if wrong, exit decisively without hesitation.
Now, about the current market. $O started at 0.5179 intraday, surged violently to 0.9169, with a single-day peak increase over 77%, volume expanded simultaneously, clearly indicating capital inflow. After the surge, a normal pullback occurred; the current price is 0.7725, just above the MA20, with the SUPERTREND line supporting at 0.7457, forming short-term support, indicating a consolidation phase after the rally.
The first short-term resistance is the previous high at 0.92; breaking and holding above this could trigger an attack on the $1 mark; strong support below is at the 0.65 platform level, and breaking this would invalidate the short-term bullish logic.
Finally, about position and mindset. I entered in two batches: first two layers at 0.75, then added one layer near 0.72 on the pullback, keeping total position within three layers, with a strict stop loss set at 0.64; if it breaks, exit unconditionally, no stubborn holding.
Mentally, remember two points: don’t be greedy in the short term, take profits anytime, don’t always aim to catch the entire rise; if wrong, don’t hold on, exit decisively at the stop loss, don’t turn short-term trades into mid-term, or mid-term into holding shares. Trading is a marathon; it’s not about how much you make in one trade, but whether you can keep surviving in the market.
$O
$BEAT
For this wave of $BEAT, I am firmly only going long. For short-term conservative expectations, I aim to take a 30% profit first. For the mid-to-long term, holding on is the plan. Reaching above 4 dollars is just a matter of time. This is a rebound after an oversell, and the potential is much bigger than you imagine.
To be honest, these are lessons I learned the hard way with real money. In the early days, when I encountered coins that had surged dramatically, I always thought that a 50% drop was a good bottom-fishing opportunity. I rushed in with full positions, only to catch the price halfway down the mountain, watching helplessly as it halved again. My hands trembled when cutting losses. I also tried to cash out hastily as soon as the rebound started, feeling proud of the small profits, only to watch the market surge further and regret it deeply. After many painful experiences over the years, I finally understood: coins that have surged dramatically don’t truly rebound unless they have fully bottomed out. Those who rush in early mostly end up handing chips to others; only those who dare to hold after a full bottom stabilization can capture the fattest gains.
Back to the current market, the daily chart has already shown a clear stabilization signal. The price is firmly standing at the 2-dollar mark, with a single-day volume surge of 14%. Anyone with a clear eye can see that funds are actively entering at the bottom to catch the dip. From the high of 11.65, the price has dropped over 80%. Retail investors who needed to cut losses have long left, leaving only those holding dead chips flat. The selling pressure above has been mostly released. The MA5 moving average has turned upward to support the price, the MACD green bars are narrowing, and the downward momentum has long been exhausted. This is the first wave of rebound after the bottom consolidation. Entering at this point offers an absurdly high cost-performance ratio.
Finally, a reminder to everyone: strictly control your position size. Start with a 30% base position, and if it pulls back to around 1.7, you can add another 20%. The total position must never exceed 50%. Set your stop loss at the previous low of 1.46. If it breaks below, exit decisively—don’t hold onto any hope. Keep your mindset calm; don’t get restless and want to run after a few points rise, nor be scared to lose sleep over a slight pullback. In the end, trading is never about luck; it’s about your control over the rhythm and whether you can stick to your trading system. Don’t get arrogant when you profit, don’t blame others when you lose. Those who survive long in this market are always the ones who keep their composure and hold their bottom line.
$BEAT
$BASED
For this wave of BASED, I firmly stick to a long-only direction. For short-term conservative expectations, I aim to take a 30-point profit first; for swing trading, hold on for the long term. Doubling the value is not an unrealistic hope. This is my solid judgment on this round of the market, without any exaggeration.
To be honest, these lessons were learned through years of painful experience in the market. When I first got into new coins, I was overconfident and rushed in with full positions whenever I saw a rise. As a result, I immediately encountered a deep drop, with no time to even trigger stop-loss orders. I stubbornly held on for half a month but couldn’t endure and cut losses. Right after I sold, the market reversed and surged upward. That frustration and regret are still vivid in my memory. Later, I also suffered losses from not holding onto profits, nervously cashing out after just a small gain, watching the market soar without me. No amount of regret could help then. After years of ups and downs, I finally understood that this market is never short of opportunities; what it lacks most is a steady mindset and capital that can be preserved. The more you rush to get rich overnight, the more the market will make you lose completely.
Back to the current chart, the daily level has already shown a clear bottom reversal trend. The price is steadily above 0.09, with all short- and mid-term moving averages turning upward to support the price. The MACD has formed a golden cross at the bottom and continues to diverge upward, with volume expanding simultaneously. Anyone with a keen eye can see that funds are quietly accumulating at the bottom. The nearly one-month sideways consolidation has already washed out all the weak floating positions, and most of the trapped positions above have been digested. At this point, moving upward faces much less resistance than expected. The SUPERTREND indicator is also close to flipping bullish. Once it effectively breaks through the 0.095 resistance, the upside space will be fully opened.
Finally, a sincere reminder: strictly control your position size. Enter with 30% as the base position first. If it pulls back to around 0.085, you can add another 20%. The total position should not exceed 60%. Set your stop loss at the previous low of 0.077. If it breaks, exit decisively without any luck. Mindset is even more critical. Don’t get restless and want to run after a few points rise, nor be scared to lose sleep over a slight pullback. In the end, trading is never about how fancy your skills are, but whether you can keep your own rhythm and stay clear-headed amid all the noise. Don’t get arrogant when you profit, don’t get discouraged when you lose. Those who survive long in this market are always the ones who stay calm and follow the rules.
$BASED

#沃什首次FOMC维持利率,放弃前瞻指引
$BTC
The short-term sell-off triggered by this rate decision has already been fully released. I have allocated 50% of my position to go long immediately, with the remaining positions waiting for the price to pull back to 63450 to add more. The stop loss is set at 62680; if it falls below this price, I will decisively exit. The first take-profit point is at 65360, with a mid-to-long-term bullish target of 66240.
Following the Federal Reserve's policy trends closely, I understand that this market decline is merely a sentimental reaction of funds to the interest rate hike expectations. This round of downward movement is clearing out holders whose convictions are not strong enough. Most traders have been disturbed by the evening's downward trend, hastily giving up their chips, ignoring the market rule that bad news landing is actually good news. The overall long-term upward pattern remains unchanged. The current volatility will only eliminate retail investors who are easily swayed by news.
The short-term panic caused by monetary policy is ultimately fleeting. Too many people are influenced by the overnight plunge and fall into a persistent bearish mood. After the market digests the rate hike expectations, they will regret missing the low-level chips. There is no need to let a single day's drastic market movement affect your own rhythm. Endure the current emotional decline; the value of mainstream assets will still be recognized by the market again. The market will only accept traders who can ignore short-term noise and maintain a long-term perspective. Hold your long positions firmly; a new round of upward momentum will start soon.
$BTC
#美伊谅解备忘录已完成电子签署
US-Iran
Seeing the news about the US-Iran agreement, I sighed and lit a cigarette.
Having traded for so many years, I've experienced countless geopolitical events—more than I can count on both hands. In 2001 during 9/11, I had just started in the industry and watched the market open and immediately crash; I was stunned. In 2003, during the Iraq War, gold and oil soared while the stock market plummeted. At that time, I had just saved some money and bet on gold, earning my first pot of gold. In 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, I was woken up by a phone call in the middle of the night. I opened the software and saw crude oil gap up by more than ten points, but BTC fell. That’s when I knew this market was no longer the market it used to be.
So this time, with the US-Iran agreement, I’m not surprised at all. What’s meant to come, will come.
Many young people might not know that the US and Iran have been adversaries for over forty years. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the US embassy hostage crisis, this grudge has been set. Sanctions, counter-sanctions, assassinations, proxy wars—every tactic has been used. The Middle East is like a powder keg; even a small spark can ignite it.
Now both sides have sat down to sign an agreement. The Strait of Hormuz is to be reopened, and the blockade lifted. Oil prices have fallen, gold has risen, and crypto has also gone up. The market votes with its feet, signaling this is good news.
But I advise you not to be too optimistic. Geopolitics has never been resolved by signing an agreement. They sign today, and might tear it up tomorrow; they shake hands in peace today, and might turn hostile again tomorrow. Things in the Middle East have never been that simple.
Here’s how I view positions. News of this magnitude will definitely cause short-term volatility, but the long-term trend depends on fundamentals. If you’re trading short-term, you can ride the wave of the news, but remember to enter and exit quickly—don’t get attached to the fight. If you’re a long-term holder, hold as you always have; don’t let one piece of news disrupt your rhythm.
A bit mystical: I’ve always felt the Middle East has a kind of magic. It’s the birthplace of three major religions, with thousands of years of grudges and conflicts, the lifeblood of oil and gold, and the world’s eyes fixed on it. Every little stir here can affect the nerves of the entire world. The fate of this place is too complex to be changed by a single agreement.
About health: Every time big news like this breaks, I can imagine the retail traders in front of their screens: heart racing, palms sweating, fingers trembling, hurriedly opening their software to check their positions, then agonizing over whether to chase or flee. Can their hearts take this day after day? Can their blood pressure stay normal? Trading requires a good mindset first; otherwise, you might lose your health before you make money.
Let me tell you, after trading for a long time, you realize many things are beyond your control. You can’t control wars, policies, or market makers. The only things you can control are your own positions and your own mindset.
How many people who trade by constantly watching the news actually make money? They chase every good news and cut losses on every bad news, getting slapped around repeatedly, ending up with no profits, broken mindset, and ruined health.
Of course, I’m not saying news isn’t important. It is, but you must have your own judgment and not be led blindly by the news. You need to think clearly: does this news change the long-term trend or is it just a short-term fluctuation? Once you figure that out, you’ll know what to do.
Regarding the US-Iran agreement, I think it’s positive in the short term, but the long term still needs observation. There’s a 60-day negotiation window, and talks could continue or break down.
So, don’t get too excited or too panicked. Eat when you should, sleep when you should, the sky won’t fall.
Trading is like living life—you need composure. When the wind blows and clouds move, your heart stays still.
US-Iran