#美股三大股指普跌，存储概念股跳水 Yesterday's sell-off essentially reflects the market starting to reprice the Federal Reserve. The Nasdaq dropped over 2%, Micron and SanDisk fell more than 12%, the South Korean Composite Index plunged nearly 10%, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both down over 12%. Many people's first reaction is that the AI bubble is bursting, but I think the issue is more complex. What has truly impacted the market recently is Wall Street's changing expectations about the interest rate path. Just last week, Bank of America projected that the Fed might cumulatively raise rates by 75 basis points throughout 2026. Deutsche Bank had also previously forecasted possible further hikes. The market discussion has shifted from when rates will be cut to when the next rate hike will occur. And AI is currently the most crowded trade globally. In recent months, capital has poured wildly into Nvidia, memory chips, data centers, and computing power chains, with the Korean market hitting new highs. Now, any shift in rate expectations naturally triggers sell-offs in these highest-valued assets first. So, the most notable point yesterday wasn't Micron dropping 12%. It was the simultaneous stampede in core global AI assets across both US and Korean markets. For the crypto space, this is also not a good sign. Over the past year, with limited new liquidity entering the market, a large amount of capital has been absorbed by the AI sector. When AI rises, BTC can benefit; when AI falls, risk appetite declines, making it difficult for crypto markets to remain completely insulated. The biggest contradiction in the market is becoming clearer: The US economy isn't weak enough to warrant rate cuts, nor is inflation low enough for the Fed to comfortably ease. Yet valuations in AI, US stocks, and crypto markets have already priced in expectations of easing. If Bank of America's forecast of a total 75 basis point hike over the year comes true, then we may not yet be at the peak pressure point for risk assets. At the end of the day, what the market traded yesterday wasn't AI, but liquidity. Without new liquidity, even the best stories struggle to rally. And when the market shifts from expecting rate cuts to expecting hikes, all high-valuation assets must be repriced.

Have altcoins hit rock bottom? Usually when BTC behaves like this, altcoins have already dropped 10%-20% across the board. This kind of situation hasn't happened for a long time.

The AI arms race has escalated from burning shareholders' money to burning creditors' money. When will these investments turn into profits? If the cash flow generated by AI in the coming years cannot keep up with the pace of capital expenditures, today's AI boom could become tomorrow's balance sheet burden. The first half of the AI game is about the story; the second half is about profits. The market has already started shifting from believing in the future to calculating returns, and it has begun to hold AI accountable.

First, Bank of America raised its 2026 interest rate forecast to a total of 75bp hikes for the year, then Japanese and South Korean stock markets collectively fell. Inflation remains resilient, the job market has not significantly deteriorated, and high interest rate policies are forced to be maintained longer. When liquidity continues to contract, the first to bear the pressure are always high-valuation assets; even the best stories struggle to rise. $BTC

The biggest problem with BTC right now isn't falling, but not being able to rise. No Fed liquidity, no new funds entering, only existing funds cutting each other down. Strategy used to be an anchor of faith, but now its role is slowly shifting, ironically becoming an anchor of pressure. What’s truly scary isn’t a crash, but sideways trading for years, slowly wearing down everyone’s patience. I don’t even know why things have become so pessimistic at this stage; the BTC in my position is just lying there, tasteless to consume, yet too precious to abandon. This might be the truest feeling of a bear market—not a single blow to kill you, but daily doubts about yourself. $BTC

Strategy has increased its USD reserves to 1.4 billion and plans to continue replenishing cash reserves to support the credit quality of STRC. It is starting to focus on liquidity and credit system construction, rather than blindly going all-in on BTC, which will make it easier for institutional funds to accept the various financial products it issues.

I saw a phrase today that really hit hard: Those still playing in the crypto world now are simply like lighting a lantern in the toilet—looking for trouble.

UK Prime Minister Starmer has announced his resignation, becoming the seventh prime minister to leave office in 10 years. If changing seven leaders in a row doesn't solve the problem, then it's likely not a problem with the people, but with the system. Over the past few decades, the UK has relied on its financial center, globalization, and the European single market to reap growth benefits. But now, the benefits of globalization are gradually fading, the aftereffects of Brexit continue, and a new growth engine has yet to emerge. Economic growth is slowing, fiscal pressures are rising, and social divisions are deepening. Prime ministers have come and gone, but the problems remain. Often, people think changing the person in charge will solve the issues. But the reality is, when growth disappears, whoever takes office ends up being the scapegoat.

China has imposed export controls on dual-use items for 10 American companies. Over the years, the U.S. has been regulating China's chips, AI computing power, and advanced semiconductor equipment. Meanwhile, China is gradually strengthening control over key resources such as rare earths, permanent magnet materials, and the drone supply chain. The U.S. holds the chips, China holds the rare earths—this is a competition between the world's two largest economies over dominance in future technology and industrial systems.

I don't know if I'm just too fearful, but the logic is like this: without liquidity, the Federal Reserve isn't flooding the market, and the small amount of liquidity is all flowing into the US stock AI sector. So how much longer can the strategy hold? What scale of capital and macroeconomic conditions are needed to push BTC up to $200,000? Assuming the strategy starts taking profits at $200,000, who will take over the strategy's positions? All of this is very difficult to achieve. If it can't be achieved, then what will happen? The current position size of the strategy and its continuous accumulation of BTC might actually be a disaster for BTC!