灯塔说

Billionaire Wang Chun's second flight But this time it's a two-year deep space journey, flying past Mars and then returning to Earth My first reaction was, aren't you afraid of accidents? Have all the details been explained in advance? Is it that after reaching a certain level of wealth, one starts to become indifferent to life and death and pursues spiritual fulfillment? If you had billions, would you take such a trip? $BTC #SpaceX递交招股书：首次披露BTC持仓

#美伊30天意向书：Hormuz risk premium narrows. The Supreme Leader of Iran just stated: Uranium can only remain in Iran. This has a significant impact on the negotiations. Oil prices are set to rise again. Gold and Bitcoin are both affected and pulling back. $BTC $XAU $CL

Note: In the next few days, there will be some positive developments in negotiations. Although it may not necessarily conclude successfully, it will inevitably cause some short-term volatility, for example, gold and BTC rising, crude oil falling! #BTC #ETH

#DelayInStrikingNonCeasefire: US-Iran negotiation window can close at any time Note: In the next few days, there will be some positive moves in the negotiations. Although it may not necessarily succeed, it will inevitably cause some short-term fluctuations such as gold and BTC rising, and crude oil falling $BTC $XAU $CL

After watching the planet for a few days, I found that 80-90% of the public square is filled with paid posters and spam posts There is not much quality #美联储会议纪要+英伟达财报：5月20同日公布

Entering the summer rainy season soon Flood warning levels will also appear The Water Resources Bureau and flood control departments will closely monitor Just like what is gradually coming into view currently: Long-term U.S. Treasury yields (10-year, 30-year) According to the official curve from the U.S. Treasury on May 15: 10-year at 4.59%, 20-year at 5.14%, 30-year at 5.12%; Intraday on May 18 showed: 10-year once reached 4.631%, 30-year reached 5.159%, just a step away from the historical high since 2007. Barclays strategists warned clients that yields could break 5.5%, reaching the highest level since 2004. Although not as extremely high as in the past, it is already in a relatively high range. The market is also starting to closely watch this yield curve. What impact does the rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields have? Simply understand these two points, and you’ll get it: 1. You can see high long-term U.S. Treasury yields as a strong dollar; what does a strong dollar mean? 2. It can also be understood as high U.S. Treasury rates compared to other yields that are not high; what actions will the market take? The purpose of sharing here is not to create panic, just purely to share a recent macro market point. Also, the background of high long-term U.S. Treasury yields varies, so the impact differs. But the impact is mainly influenced by complex international events, especially the chain reaction of high oil prices caused by the U.S.-Iran war. The related impacts are very complex. But one thing remains unchanged: the current rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields suppresses the U.S. stock market, crypto market, and gold market. However, gold has a safe-haven attribute in turbulent times. The crypto market’s "digital gold" safe-haven attribute is more uncertain. $BTC #美联储会议纪要+英伟达财报：5月20同日公布 #高盛清仓，机构持仓分化 #推迟打击非停战：美伊本周窗口待定

#特朗普持续施压伊朗：国际油价直线拉升 These major events are the key factors that will impact the market going forward: 1. The Federal Reserve changes its chairperson, and the market needs to reinterpret the rules 2. The US-Iran conflict pushes up oil price costs, with inflation facing continued upward risk 3. Long-term US Treasury yields rise; will the bond market believe inflation will be controlled? 4. After the Federal Reserve appoints a new chairperson, can it still maintain absolute independence? $BTC $ETH

The current BTC and ETH market is really hard to play Short-term keeps oscillating Tasteless to eat, not a pity to abandon #BTC Continuing to play the delta game

The probability of a Fed rate hike has risen to 35% No discussion of rate cuts now Instead, expectations for a rate hike have increased #加息