Interrupting the "stock" head connected by tendons Yesterday, US stocks opened high and closed low This morning, Korean stocks hit circuit breakers US stocks continued to fall in pre-market This led to a pullback in the entire financial risk product sector This is a cooldown Also a reaction to Bank of America's prediction of three rate hikes this year Bitcoin wants to rise but can't move up Others follow the downward trend Truly a laid-back market! $BTC

June 18 Crypto Market and Macro Market Review Last night’s FOMC and Waller’s debut basically confirmed my pre-market judgment: Interest rates remain unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, which was expected. The real focus is not the "no rate hike," but that the Fed has completely crushed the market’s rate cut fantasies. I said it was neutral to hawkish last night, but the actual result was clearly hawkish. Key signals: 1. Statement significantly shortened, future rate path guidance removed Waller’s first move was not to rush to give the market answers but to tell the market: don’t expect the Fed to feed forward guidance every day anymore. 2. Waller himself did not submit a dot plot This is interesting. It’s not because he lacks an opinion, but because he dislikes the market treating the dot plot as a script for trading. However, other officials’ dot plots are more hawkish: out of 18 people, 9 believe there will be rate hikes this year, only 1 expects a rate cut. 3. Inflation expectations clearly revised upward Although oil prices fell due to easing US-Iran tensions, the Fed did not interpret this as "early easing." Their stance is clear: the energy shock can ease, but inflation is not yet defeated. 4. Waller’s style confirmed He is not the "rate cut machine" Trump imagined, nor a simple Powell 2.0. He is more of a reformer, rule follower, and less-committal: less talk about paths, more focus on data, rebuilding Fed authority. So after last night, the market’s main theme changed: Previously it was trading "when will rate cuts happen"; now it’s about trading "will there be rate hikes again this year." This is critical for gold, BTC, and US stocks. Short-term risk assets were negatively impacted but this also grounded the previous market rate hike expectations; the negative impact did not expand, especially since the temporary US-Iran ceasefire eased rate hike expectations. This was also reflected in the market: after the news last night, crypto’s decline was limited, gold actually fell more but recovered some losses during the day. As mentioned before, the current large-scale BTC and ETH market trends are not reversals; yesterday was a test after a rebound, and the key support area has been broken, showing short-term weakness. Capital inflows are also insufficient: BTC ETF had a net inflow of about $85.9 million on June 12, a slight inflow on June 16, but a net outflow of about $82.2 million on June 17. Capital is fluctuating without forming continuous buying. ETH ETF similarly lacks stable support. The subsequent market mainly follows technical trends. Current price is near 63900; today’s focus is on the 64.8K–65K and 62.8K–62K ranges, leaning bearish. ETH looks at 1720–1735; only a firm hold above 1750 counts as a stop to the decline. In summary, the recent fundamentals of the Fed meeting and US-Iran agreement have been priced in; the market is more about returning to price fluctuations. It has not broken above the high supply pressure zone at 67K. The current rebound is a pullback phase within the 4-hour and daily downtrend. Without positive catalysts, continue to treat rebounds as shorting opportunities.