June 18 Crypto Market and Macro Market Review Last night’s FOMC and Waller’s debut basically confirmed my pre-market judgment: Interest rates remain unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, which was expected. The real focus is not the "no rate hike," but that the Fed has completely crushed the market’s rate cut fantasies. I said it was neutral to hawkish last night, but the actual result was clearly hawkish. Key signals: 1. Statement significantly shortened, future rate path guidance removed Waller’s first move was not to rush to give the market answers but to tell the market: don’t expect the Fed to feed forward guidance every day anymore. 2. Waller himself did not submit a dot plot This is interesting. It’s not because he lacks an opinion, but because he dislikes the market treating the dot plot as a script for trading. However, other officials’ dot plots are more hawkish: out of 18 people, 9 believe there will be rate hikes this year, only 1 expects a rate cut. 3. Inflation expectations clearly revised upward Although oil prices fell due to easing US-Iran tensions, the Fed did not interpret this as "early easing." Their stance is clear: the energy shock can ease, but inflation is not yet defeated. 4. Waller’s style confirmed He is not the "rate cut machine" Trump imagined, nor a simple Powell 2.0. He is more of a reformer, rule follower, and less-committal: less talk about paths, more focus on data, rebuilding Fed authority. So after last night, the market’s main theme changed: Previously it was trading "when will rate cuts happen"; now it’s about trading "will there be rate hikes again this year." This is critical for gold, BTC, and US stocks. Short-term risk assets were negatively impacted but this also grounded the previous market rate hike expectations; the negative impact did not expand, especially since the temporary US-Iran ceasefire eased rate hike expectations. This was also reflected in the market: after the news last night, crypto’s decline was limited, gold actually fell more but recovered some losses during the day. As mentioned before, the current large-scale BTC and ETH market trends are not reversals; yesterday was a test after a rebound, and the key support area has been broken, showing short-term weakness. Capital inflows are also insufficient: BTC ETF had a net inflow of about $85.9 million on June 12, a slight inflow on June 16, but a net outflow of about $82.2 million on June 17. Capital is fluctuating without forming continuous buying. ETH ETF similarly lacks stable support. The subsequent market mainly follows technical trends. Current price is near 63900; today’s focus is on the 64.8K–65K and 62.8K–62K ranges, leaning bearish. ETH looks at 1720–1735; only a firm hold above 1750 counts as a stop to the decline. In summary, the recent fundamentals of the Fed meeting and US-Iran agreement have been priced in; the market is more about returning to price fluctuations. It has not broken above the high supply pressure zone at 67K. The current rebound is a pullback phase within the 4-hour and daily downtrend. Without positive catalysts, continue to treat rebounds as shorting opportunities.

The market is waiting for tonight's FOMC meeting (2 AM) and Waller's debut speech (2:30 AM). The forecast for tonight's tone is neutral to slightly hawkish. Based on the following points: 1. First, the interest rate decision will definitely keep rates unchanged at 3.50%—3.75%, and the dot plot likely won't provide clear forward guidance. This suggests no rate hikes and no signals of rate cuts, so the market might be slightly disappointed by the lack of rate cut expectations and pull back a bit. 2. Next, it depends on the signals in Waller's speech. The core message from Waller is expected to downplay rate cut talk; although he won't mention rate hikes either, if no rate cut signals are given, the market will interpret this as neutral to slightly hawkish. We can roughly anticipate the speech content from these points: 1) Although oil prices have fallen, inflation remains high (neutral to slightly hawkish). 2) Nonfarm payroll data remains strong and resilient, the economy is in good shape, so there is no rush to ease early (implying no hurry to cut rates, neutral to slightly hawkish). 3) Previous analysis shows Waller's style is unlike Powell's in guiding future direction, so Waller will likely emphasize that future meetings will depend on data (no forward guidance, neutral to slightly hawkish). 4) Regarding the Fed's independence, if Waller clearly emphasizes the Fed's independence, the USD will stabilize; if his remarks are ambiguous, the market may worry about Fed independence, causing the USD to fall and gold and crypto to rebound. In summary, tonight is very likely to be neutral to slightly hawkish. If the gold and crypto markets interpret the core message as no rate change this time, while acknowledging the cooling tensions between the US and Iran and the drop in oil prices, the market might interpret this as no urgency to hike rates and lean dovish, leading to a rebound in gold and crypto. Everyone should watch for these points tonight; I will verify and interpret again tomorrow morning.

Trading Chat: Today, a brother in the group said gold and crude oil are much more accurate, meaning others are not accurate. Actually, he means that recently gold and crude oil have been more profitable. At the beginning of the month, crude oil was openly shorted at 95, gold at 4080 was widely advised to go long. These two moves were all thanks to Trump’s strong influence. In terms of trading instruments: gold and crude oil have more pragmatic volatility; whether they rise or fall is very straightforward, not like Bitcoin, which is indecisive and hesitant. They are very direct macro assets, relatively easier to trade in swings. #XAU #WTI

June 17 Crypto Market Review Yesterday's review pointed out that BTC rebounded from around 60K, mainly driven by risk appetite recovery, which is a short-term positive but not yet a confirmation of a strong trend or trend reversal. Capital Flow: BTC ETFs just ended a continuous 13 trading days outflow at the beginning of June, with cumulative redemptions exceeding 4.4 billion USD. Although there was a net inflow of about 85.9 million USD on June 12, there was a net outflow of about 64.8 million USD on June 15, and a slight outflow on June 16 as well. ETH ETFs had a net inflow of about 22.5 million USD on June 15, but turned to a net outflow of about 7.7 million USD on June 16. This indicates that institutional funds in the circle have not yet formed a continuous strong replenishment. Strategy recently bought another 1,587 BTC at an average price of about 63,024 USD, raising total holdings to about 846,842 BTC. This slightly repaired the market sentiment from before. Key focus tonight is the FOMC at 2 AM and Powell's debut speech at 2:30 AM. Technical Analysis: 65K-67.2K is the current core battleground. $BTC is currently around 65.8K. This position is neither a low safe zone nor a confirmation zone after a breakout, but the mid-stage resistance of the previous decline structure during the rebound. Key resistance above is at 66.4K-67.2K. This is where short-term multiple pin failures occurred and also a buyer liquidity accumulation zone. Only by reclaiming 67.2K and holding steady on the 1H chart can BTC regain short-term initiative. Key support below is at 65K-65.3K, with further support at 64.2K-64.7K. Currently, the liquidation zone below is relatively dense; the price may first sweep down to clear longs and short-term stops before attempting a pullback. On the 4H level, BTC's rebound from 58K-60K to above 67K is valid. However, above are supply zones left from previous declines at 68K, 69K, and 70K. Only by reclaiming 68.5K-69K will the daily rebound quality significantly improve. Summary: BTC is watching tonight's FOMC meeting, still contesting the 65K-67.2K range in the short term. Reclaiming 67.2K means short-term strength returns; holding 64.2K-65K is a healthy pullback; Breaking below and accepting volume under 64.2K risks this rebound turning into a secondary distribution.