CryptoPainter
CryptoPainter
老朋友叫我“画师”，技术\数据分析和量化交易，提供各种刁钻角度看市场，用时间做杠杆。 实盘为Agent账户，正在测试的一个自进化策略系统，请勿跟单！
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Sharing a friend's perspective:
The end of this crypto bear market will most likely coincide with the collapse of a sizable institution or exchange...
Miners are already struggling a lot, and there must be some exchanges that are exposed and vulnerable. The tide is receding; it's just a matter of time...
CryptoPainter
JT - The Regime indicator shows that the current bear market is already close to the level of September 2022...
But my personal feeling is completely different; I always feel the bear market has only progressed about 40%, while the indicator suggests the bear market is already 70% complete...
Why is there such a discrepancy? It's simple, because according to the logic of the indicator, the bear market actually started at the beginning of 2025 after Trump imposed tariffs...
You can see the difference from the red volume bars below...
Why do poor people have such strong control desires when raising children?
Because if you treat raising children as an investment, wealthy families are buying defensive long-term assets, while poor families are heavily investing all in and getting stuck with the asset...
When a person has no other hope besides being heavily invested in a single asset, wouldn't they watch that sole holding closely every day...
In the market, you have to learn to diversify risk, and life should be the same...
JT - The Regime indicator shows that the current bear market is already close to the level of September 2022...
But my personal feeling is completely different; I always feel the bear market has only progressed about 40%, while the indicator suggests the bear market is already 70% complete...
Why is there such a discrepancy? It's simple, because according to the logic of the indicator, the bear market actually started at the beginning of 2025 after Trump imposed tariffs...
You can see the difference from the red volume bars below...
CryptoPainter
If the future evolution of BTC is characterized by increasingly smaller cyclical fluctuations but a slow overall upward trend with macro inflation, then this perfectly explains why each bull market's gains are getting smaller and each bear market's losses are decreasing...
The recent bull market was quite disappointing, but the current bear market is also the mildest among all previous bear markets...
If the future evolution of BTC is characterized by increasingly smaller cyclical fluctuations but a slow overall upward trend with macro inflation, then this perfectly explains why each bull market's gains are getting smaller and each bear market's losses are decreasing...
The recent bull market was quite disappointing, but the current bear market is also the mildest among all previous bear markets...
Dropped: Did I buy too much yesterday...
Risen: Did I buy too little yesterday...
Fighting between the left and right brain for too long can lead to schizophrenia...
CryptoPainter
The previous bear market had 4 major downward phases (breaking new lows), but the decline in each phase was progressively smaller;
In the current bear market, there have already been 3 downward phases breaking new lows. It is not yet confirmed whether the third phase has completed, but what can be confirmed is that right after the third sharp drop to a new low, it marks the beginning of the large cycle bottom range, which is the most suitable stage to start dollar-cost averaging...
ICE and OKX have established a joint venture, OKXICE!
No wonder ethereum:0x75231f58b43240c9718dd58b4967c5114342a86c has surged past $80 again...
Following the previous strategic investment, the cooperation is now officially underway, and OKX has successfully entered the core circle!
The next step will most likely be rushing towards becoming a hybrid asset exchange including crypto and US stocks...
You say OKX is obsessed with compliance and can't extricate itself?
But compliance protects users, not the exchange, a logic that few mention...
