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#WarshDropsGuidance A new era of Fed policy has begun.
At his very first FOMC meeting, Chairman Kevin Warsh kept rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, but the real shock came from what happened next.
The Fed removed references to "further adjustments" from its statement, and Warsh made it clear during the press conference:
Forward guidance is over.
With inflation still "far above 2%", Warsh signaled that markets should stop relying on Fed hints and start pricing assets based on real economic data.
The message was instantly felt across global markets.
Bitcoin plunged from $66,000 to $63,925 (-2.66%)
Gold surged 1.3% to $4,308
Fed funds futures now fully price in a 25bp rate hike by year-end
Even more striking, the latest dot plot revealed a distinctly hawkish Fed:
- 9 officials expect at least one rate hike in 2026
- 1 member still supports three hikes this year
For more than a decade, markets were guided by the Fed's roadmap.
Today, Warsh effectively tore up that map.
The age of predictable central bank signals may be ending, and the age of volatility may just be beginning.
$BTC $ETH
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