By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) remains stuck near the $95,000 mark, apparently unfazed by the Canadian election result, which saw the crypto-friendly candidate for prime minister lose his seat. Key macroeconomic data due later this week could serve as a catalyst for bitcoin’s next move, with the standout being Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.

In the meantime, the largest cryptocurrency is reaching a series of higher lows and lower highs, forming a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern. This setup following a strong uptrend typically implies a continuation. A decisive breakout above $95,500 could spark the next leg higher, while a drop below support would indicate a potential reversal.

On the technical front, bitcoin's hashrate, which has surged over recent months and is now about 10% away from its record, is beginning to decelerate. A downward difficulty adjustment of more than 5% is anticipated in four days and will provide some much-needed relief to miners, who have been grappling with hashprice levels near five-year lows.

The week's macroeconomic data include personal spending and GDP growth figures on Wednesday, though Friday's jobs report takes center stage. Economists forecast a drop in new jobs to 135,000 during April, down from March’s 228,000 figure, which was the strongest in three months.

The unemployment rate is projected to have held steady at 4.2%, underscoring a persistently tight labor market. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 91% probability of the Fed funds rate being held at at 4.25%–4.50% at the May 7 FOMC meeting.

Also in the mix, earnings season is heating up, particularly among the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks. Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) report after the market close on Wednesday, followed by Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Strategy (MSTR) on Thursday. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
  • April 30, 9:30 a.m.: ProShares will debut three ETFs that will provide leveraged and inverse exposure to XRP: ​​the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF, the ProShares Short XRP ETF and the ProShares UltraShort XRP ETF.
  • April 30, 10:03 a.m.: Gnosis Chain (GNO), an Ethereum sister chain, will activate the Pectra hard fork on its mainnet at slot 21,405,696, epoch 1,337,856.
  • May 1: Coinbase Asset Management will introduce the Coinbase Bitcoin Yield Fund (CBYF), which is aimed at non-U.S. investors.
  • May 1: Hippo Protocol starts up its own layer-1 blockchain mainnet built on Cosmos SDK and completes a migration from Ethereum’s ERC-20 HPO token to its native HP token, enabling staking and governance.
  • May 1, 9 a.m.: Constellation Network (DAG) activates the Tessellation v3 upgrade on its mainnet, introducing delegated staking, node collateral, token locking and new transaction types to enhance network security, scalability and functionality.
  • May 1, 11 a.m.: THORChain activates its v3.5 mainnet upgrade, adding the TCY token to convert $200 million in debt into equity. TCY holders earn 10% of network revenue, while native RUNE remains the protocol’s security and governance token. TCY activates May 5.
• Macro
  • April 29, 10 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases March JOLTs report (job openings, hires, and separations).
    • Job Openings Est. 7.5M vs. Prev. 7.568M
    • Job Quits Prev. 3.195M
  • April 29, 10 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing titled “Regulatory Overreach: The Price Tag on American Prosperity.” Livestream link.
  • April 30, 8 a.m.: Brazil’s Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases March unemployment rate data.
    • Unemployment Rate Prev. 6.8%
  • April 30, 8 a.m.: Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases (preliminary) Q1 GDP growth data.
    • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prev. -0.6%
    • GDP Growth Rate YoY Prev. 0.5%
  • April 30, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases (advance) Q1 GDP growth data.
    • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 2.4%
  • April 30, 10 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases March consumer income and expenditure data.
    • Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.4%
    • Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.8%
    • PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0% vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.2% vs. Prev. 2.5%
    • Personal Income MoM Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 0.8%
    • Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.6% vs. Prev. 0.4%
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • April 29: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), pre-market, $1.16
  • April 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market, $0.33
  • May 1: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.97
  • May 1: Reddit (RDDT), post-market, $0.02
  • May 1: Riot Platforms (RIOT), post-market, $-0.23

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Uniswap DAO is voting on a proposal to renew the Uniswap Accountability Committee (UAC) for Season 4, extending its mandate until the end of 2025. Voting ends April 29.
  • Balancer DAO is voting on allocating $250,000 worth of ARB to a multisig controlled by contributors to fund testing of new automated market maker (AMM) pool models.
  • April 30, 2 a.m.: NEO to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session with its founder, Da Hongfei.
  • April 30, 12 p.m.: Helium to host a community call meeting.
  • May 5, 4 p.m.: Livepeer (LPT) to host a Treasury Talk session on Discord.
• Unlocks
  • April 30: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.89% of its circulating supply worth $24.75 million.
  • May 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.28% of its circulating supply worth $267.86 million.
  • May 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 5.67% of its circulating supply worth $12.10 million.
  • May 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.73% of its circulating supply worth $13.44 million.
  • May 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.56% of its circulating supply worth $14.01 million.
  • May 9: Movement (MOVA) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $12.35 million.
• Token Launches
  • April 29: MilkyWay (MILK) to be listed on Bybit.
  • April 29: Virtual (VIRTUAL) to be listed on Binance.US.
  • May 2: Binance to delist Alpaca Finance (ALPACA), PlayDapp (PDA), Viberate (VIB), and Wing Finance (WING).
  • May 5: Sonic (S) to be listed on Kraken.

Conferences

CoinDesk's Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

• Day 3 of 4: Web Summit Rio 2025
• Day 2 of 2: Staking Summit Dubai
• April 29: El Salvador Digital Assets Summit 2025 (San Salvador, El Salvador)
• April 29: IFGS 2025 (London)
• April 30-May 1: TOKEN2049 (Dubai)
• May 6-7: Financial Times Digital Assets Summit (London)
• May 11-17: Canada Crypto Week (Toronto)
• May 12-13: Dubai FinTech Summit
• May 12-13: Filecoin (FIL) Developer Summit (Toronto)
• May 12-13: Latest in DeFi Research (TLDR) Conference (New York)
• May 12-14: ACI’s 9th Annual Legal, Regulatory, and Compliance Forum on Fintech & Emerging Payment Systems (New York)
• May 13: Blockchain Futurist Conference (Toronto)
• May 13: ETHWomen (Toronto)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• BNB Chain's Lorentz upgrade went live earlier Tuesday, boosting BNB token fundamentals by making the network faster and more efficient.
• The upgrade improved the way validators exchange data, making the process quicker and smoother to reduce delays and speed up transaction processing.
• It also added a method allowing validators to receive multiple blocks at once, instead of one by one.
• The time it takes to create a new block is reduced to about 1.5 seconds and could fall to as low as 0.75 seconds. Faster block times mean transactions are confirmed more quickly, making the network feel snappier for users.
• The update makes decentralized apps (dapps) like games or financial tools run faster and smoother. Developers can keep building apps the same way because the update doesn’t change how the network works with their code.
• A faster, more efficient network attracts more users and developers, which can increase demand for BNB and make it more valuable over time.

Derivatives Positioning

• Total open interest (OI) across perpetuals, options and futures now stands at $122 billion globally, according to data from Laevitas.
• SUI has seen a sharp surge in derivatives activity, with its share of global perpetuals volume peaking at 5.06% ($7.12 billion) on April 25.
• It has since sustained volume dominance above 3.5%, significantly higher than its historical average of under 2%, suggesting renewed speculative appetite driven by recent project announcements.
• According to Coinalyze, the top OI gainers in the past 24 hours among tokens with market caps over $100 million are:
  • SAFE: +123%
  • RAY: +92%
  • MOCA: +68%

Market Movements:

• BTC is up 0.43% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $95,009.93 (24hrs: +0.33%)
• ETH is up 2.81% at $1,838.46 (24hrs: +1.9%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.85% at 2,792.69 (24hrs: -0.08%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 28 bps at 2.975%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0005% (0.5749% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.27% at 99.28
• Gold is down 1.11% at $3,306.08/oz
• Silver is up 0.41% at $33.28/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed +0.38% at 35,839.99
• Hang Seng closed +0.16% at 22,008.11
• FTSE is up 0.16% at 8,430.89
• Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,168.63
• DJIA closed on Monday 0.28% at 40,227.59
• S&P 500 closed +0.06% at 5,528.75
• Nasdaq closed -0.1% at 17,336.13
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.36% at 24,798.59
• S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.74% at 2,549.44
• U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 6 bps at 4.21%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.14% at 5,561.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.15% at 190557.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.36% at 40,515.00

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 64.24 (-0.24%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.01928 (1.80%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 842 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $48.7 PH/s
• Total Fees: 6.98 BTC / $651,628
• CME Futures Open Interest: 132, 750 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 28.6 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 8.10%

Technical Analysis

• Ether (ETH) is showing signs of recovery after reclaiming the value area (defined by the two blue dotted lines), suggesting a return to its high-volume price zone established since the October 2023 rally.
• The Point of Control (PoC) remains near $2,200, serving as a major magnet for price action and a critical bullish target.
• ETH is also approaching the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), a potential inflection point that may spark volatility.
• The level is particularly notable because many altcoins have beaten ether to reclaim their 50-day EMAs.
• Importantly, price action has now broken above the descending trendline stemming from the December 2024 high, a key structural shift favoring bullish momentum.
• Upside targets include:
  • $2,104 to confirm a higher high
  • $2,200 (PoC), volume-weighted focal point
  • $2,480 (200-day EMA), long-term resistance
• To maintain its bullish bias, ETH must hold above the lower boundary of the value area (~$1,745), or risk a return to bearish sentiment.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed Monday at $369.25 (+0.15%), up 0.30% at $370.34 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $205.27 (-2.08%), up 0.58% at $206.47
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at $21.21 (2.81%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.01 (-2.03%)
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.63 (-1.8%), up 0.39% at $7.66
• Core Scientific (CORZ) closed at $8.24 (-0.84%), up 1.21% at $8.34
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.57 (-4.88%), up 0.12% at $8.58
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.33 (-1.58%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $35.37 (-3.99%), up 1.78% at $36.00
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $42.18 (-7.30%), up 1.92% at $42.99

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net flow: $591.2 million
• Cumulative net flows: $38.99 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.14 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: $64.1 million
• Cumulative net flows: $2.48 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.40 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• BTC dominates derivatives, with $32.97B in open interest (OI), over 40% of the total and more than double ETH’s $12.26B.
• Memecoins like DOGE, TRUMP, PEPE and FARTCOIN each exceed $480M in OI, outperforming many large-cap assets, showing the strength of memecoins within derivatives positioning.
• ETH + SOL combined ($16.11B) remain fall far short of BTC’s OI, underscoring bitcoin's continued derivatives supremacy.

While You Were Sleeping

• Bitcoin-Friendly Poilievre Loses Seat as Carney's Liberals Win 2025 Election (CoinDesk): Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre lost his Ottawa-area seat as Mark Carney’s Liberal Party won enough seats to form at least a minority government.
• Canadian Dollar Slips as Liberals Head for Only Narrow Victory (Bloomberg): Prime Minister Mark Carney faces pressure to ease Canada’s reliance on its southern neighbor as the currency remains sensitive to trade negotiations and U.S. tariff risks.
• DOJ Seeks 20-Year Sentence for Celsius Founder Alex Mashinsky (CoinDesk): Mashinsky pleaded guilty to deliberately misleading customers about the safety of their deposits while manipulating the CEL token for personal gain. Sentencing is set for May 8.
• Russia Hopes Warmer Weather Will Boost Flagging Spring Offensive (The Wall Street Journal): Ukrainian forces have stalled Russia’s advances this spring, but analysts warn warmer weather will harden ground and thicken cover, making future attacks harder to repel.
• Gold Prices Drop as Tariff Concerns Ease; US Data in Focus (Reuters): Growing risk appetite, supported by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s statement that several major trading partners have made strong proposals, is reducing demand for gold.
• EU Faces Trade War on Many Fronts (Financial Times): European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s strategy is to negotiate with Trump, strengthen trade with other nations, and lower internal market barriers to support EU exporters.

In the Ether