Nothing else
Boss Yi, otherwise, let's learn more
Or hire a couple of finance kids
In order to liquidate $5 billion
Pay attention to the money after leverage
The actual margin is much less than 5 billion
Ethereum has the potential to rise to $4,000
But the momentum of the rise is definitely not for the 5 billion liquidation
It is said that what BlackRock bought is stronger than the 5 billion liquidation theory
Let's calculate how much actual net inflow is needed to get to 4000
The price rise of the currency does not require the same amount of capital to pour in, because the market depth is limited, the existence of leverage, and the thin pending orders will amplify the price elasticity
1/ Historical estimates
Based on the experience of the past few years:
In a bull market, a net inflow of $1 in crypto assets could push the market capitalisation up by $10-$25
For a highly liquid coin like ETH, a more conservative magnification is 1:10 to 1:15
2/ Current circulating ETH market capitalisation
Let's assume that the total supply of ETH is about 120M ETH, and the price starts from:
$2800 → Total Market Cap = 2800 * 120M = $336 Billion
$4000 → Total market capitalisation = 4000 * 120M = $480 billion
Incremental market capitalisation = $144 billion
3/ Estimate the funding required in terms of inflow multiples
If we take:
Funds magnification = 15x
Real inflows of ≈ incremental market capitalisation ÷ multiples ≈ $144 billion÷ $≈1,596 billion
Going from ETH $2800 to $4000 would require around $6 billion to $12 billion in actual net inflows (depending on market structure and sentiment)
A reasonable median: ≈ $90~$10 billion net buying
In order to liquidate 5 billion, and the margin is much lower than 5 billion
Spend 10 billion real money
It's a bit of a thing
Echo below
Ethereum has the potential to rise to $4,000
But the momentum of the rise is definitely not for the 5 billion liquidation
It is said that BlackRock is stronger than the 5 billion liquidation theory
Regarding the simplest reason for ETH bullishness, CME is short $1.3 billion, AAVE is short $1 billion, and each exchange is at least $3 billion, a total of $5 billion ETH short orders will be forced short, and it is very likely that ETH will go to 3000, 3500 or even 4000 in the short market, which is the core reason for us to buy 100,000 ETH options.
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