For the last six months, I tried to explained to everyone that there wasn't a strong fundamental reason why Ethereum dumped. And there woudn't be a strong fundamental reason why it would eventually pump again. Don't get me wrong, many of the criticisms about Ethereum are justified, and the changes are welcome. But price and fundamentals move mostly indepedently of each other. There are always reasons to both love and hate a good project. The market action just creates the frame that makes people see only one and not the other. Humans cannot stand uncertainty and randomness, so we always have to invent explanations why something happened. In markets, we backfill price action with narratives, which tends to create momentum. Nowhere is this more true than in crypto, where few established valuation models exist to anchor the price. But there are two things that people get wrong from there: 1) Its not like there are NO fundamentals in crypto. I won't go into all the areas in which Ethereum is the clear market leader again, but they exist, and the more you zoom out, the more they matter. 2) As long as movements are driven primarily by momentum, they will eventually slow down and then reverse. I've only been in crypto since 2018 but even I have seen this play out several times before. In 2019, people were calling ETH dead, because thy were confusing momentum with fundamentals. in 2021/22, the same people were calling BTC dead, flippening is just a matter of time, whatnot. Every time I said, I don't know what the next narrative will be, but there will be one. It's okay not to see it today, because narrative follows price anyway. Today, BTC is a great place as an increasingly recognized macro asset and a vibrant L2 roadmap, in spite of core devs best efforts to prevent it. Now, I am not saying Ethereum will never reach its ATHs vs BTC again. There are some good arguments it will -- an unproductive asset like digital gold has a much smaller ceiling in people's portfolio than a productive one. On the other hand, its possible that the smart contract chains will do great in terms of adoption but there are many winners, or they end up capturing very little value. It's also possible L1s have been overvalued as category for years (we called it the L1 premium for a reason, right?) and it turns out that its actually hard to capture value in an increasingly modular world. I think this world is actually quite likely. It's great, too -- means that blockchains are actually "just" decentralized servers, and more value will accrue to the apps building on top. This is another good example how narrative and price affect each other: L1s outperform apps (actually for legal arbitrage reasons), so people invent a narrative to explain it (digital countries! fat protocols! ...), driving further outperformance. That's why its actually great for Solana as well that Ethereum is pumping, because Solana is valued exclusively in comparison to Ethereum today and probably will be for the new few years. Anyway, just ranting a bit on a long train ride. My only point for you would be to zoom out. Understand the relationship between price and narrative and fundamentals. These things can become very twisted in crypto, and nothing is ever as good or bad as it looks.
Something interesting about this pump: no one’s even inventing a reason. There’s usually at least one popular bogus explanation.
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