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Dalio's latest remarks on the new highs in the US stock market, geopolitical conflicts, the Federal Reserve, and the impact of artificial intelligence, as well as interpretations and effects on BTC and ETH. #玩转策略 1. Dalio's latest remarks (4.27 CNBC + April "Time" magazine) 1. New highs in the US stock market: strong earnings + loose liquidity, reasonable but fragile in the short term. Core viewpoint: It's not surprising for the US stock market to reach new highs during wartime; the market only focuses on corporate earnings and cash flow in the short term. As long as it is not continuously impacted by war, the stock market is unlikely to fall deeply[]. Risks: Stagflation + high debt + geopolitical spillover; if earnings weaken, the US stock market could easily collapse from high levels[]. 2. Geopolitical conflicts: The Middle East is the "ultimate showdown," determining the global monetary landscape. Key variables: Control of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's nuclear program, missile threats; if these three are not resolved, the US cannot claim victory[]. Impact: Prolonged conflict → high oil prices + sticky inflation + weakened dollar credibility, leading the world into a monetary system repricing cycle. 3. The Federal Reserve: The US is already in "stagflation," and interest rates must not be cut in May. Positioning: The US is in a low-growth + high-inflation stagflation, and inflation is far from meeting targets[]. Warning: If Waller (taking over from Powell in May) cuts interest rates, it will severely damage the credibility of the Federal Reserve, triggering a dollar crash, uncontrollable inflation, and asset bubbles[]. Recommendation: Maintain high interest rates + strict control of liquidity, with a portfolio allocation of 5%–15% in gold for hedging[]. 4. Artificial intelligence: AI is revolutionary but has a huge bubble and intense competition. Landscape: The US focuses on profits and closed-source AI; China emphasizes accessibility, open-source, and low prices (like water and electricity), with Chinese AI costs crushing those of the US. Risks: Oversupply of AI, price wars, thin profits; most companies will fail, and the AI bubble will burst. Opportunities: The demand for AI computing power is eternal, with energy + computing infrastructure being the biggest beneficiaries. 5. Reaffirming crypto attitudes: There is only one gold, and BTC is not it (March podcast). Core: Gold is a millennia-old hard currency and central bank reserve; BTC is traceable, lacks central bank backing, and has quantum risks, making it a non-hedge asset, merely a highly volatile speculative product[]. Contrast: However, it acknowledges that under the depreciation of the dollar + debt crisis, the logic of hedging against depreciation holds. 2. In-depth interpretation: Stagflation + geopolitics + AI, a triple cycle resonance. Macro main line: Stagflation is the long-term new normal. High debt + high inflation + low growth → the Federal Reserve finds it difficult to cut interest rates, the dollar remains weak but does not collapse, and gold enters a long bull market[]. Geopolitical main line: The Middle East conflict is a "stress test for dollar hegemony." Instability in the Strait of Hormuz → the foundation of energy dollars is shaken, accelerating de-dollarization[]. Technical main line: AI differentiation, computing power is king. The application side's bubble bursts, with computing power + energy becoming the hard core, leading to a reassessment of BTC mining value. 3. Impact on BTC/ETH (short-term + medium-term + long-term). Short-term (1–3 months): Fluctuating with a strong bias, driven by both hedging and computing power. BTC: Positive: Stagflation + weakening dollar + strong energy prices reinforce the narrative of digital gold + energy settlement; AI computing power demand boosts mining value. Negative: Dalio's **"there is only one gold"** statement suppresses speculative sentiment in the short term; high interest rates from the Federal Reserve lead to tighter liquidity[]. Price levels: Support at 75500/77000; resistance at 80000/85000. ETH: Positive: The narrative of AI Agent + DePIN computing network is fermenting, with ETH becoming the on-chain settlement layer for AI; the stagflation environment favors high-growth, high-elasticity assets. Negative: Concerns over the AI bubble lead to cautious short-term funding; fluctuations in gas fees + competition from other chains divert funds. Price levels: Support at 2150/2250; resistance at 2450/2800. Medium-term (3–12 months): Structural differentiation, BTC stable, ETH highly elastic. BTC: Benefiting from energy scarcity + institutional hedging allocations, it will fluctuate upward, targeting 85k–90k; the narrative of de-dollarization strengthens, leading to a long-term reassessment of value. ETH: Driven by the implementation of AI + recovery of DeFi, it will be more elastic, targeting 2800–3200; beware of the risks of the AI bubble bursting + tightening regulations. Long-term (1–2 years): Value logic reshaped, BTC becomes the "gold of the AI era." BTC: The AI + energy revolution will increase global energy consumption, reinforcing BTC's energy minting + decentralized value storage attributes, making it a core hedging asset under stagflation + geopolitical turmoil. ETH: Deep integration of AI and blockchain will make ETH the token of AI economic infrastructure, shifting its value from "cryptocurrency" to "the hub of the AI digital economy." 4. Operational strategies (May). BTC: Light long positions at 77k–78k, stop loss at 75.5k; reduce positions near 80k, and look for a breakout at 85k. ETH: Light long positions at 2250–2300, stop loss at 2150; reduce positions near 2450, and look for a breakout at 2800. Risk control: Stagflation + geopolitical + AI bubble threefold risk, primarily light positions, not heavy positions, with strict stop losses[]. 5. Follow-up must-watch (1–2 months). Federal Reserve policy: The first meeting after Waller takes over in May, whether to maintain high interest rates[]. Geopolitical developments: Navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz, US-Iran negotiation trends[]. AI data: AI computing power demand, model invocation volume, progress of AI project implementations.

1. Core Data (March 2026) OpenRouter (the world's largest AI model API aggregation platform): 20.4 trillion total Tokens globally from March 16 to March 22, with China accounting for 7.359 trillion, or 36%. National Data Bureau (Liu Liehong): China's daily Token usage has surpassed 140 trillion, a thousandfold increase from 100 billion at the beginning of 2024; for three consecutive weeks in March, the weekly call volume exceeded that of the United States, making it one of the most active countries for AI applications globally. Key Contrast: Chinese users account for only 6% of OpenRouter, yet the call volume is the highest in the world; the top six models globally are all Chinese models (Qwen3.6 Plus, Xiaomi MiMo-V2-Pro, etc.). 2. In-Depth Data Interpretation (3 Core Conclusions) 1. China AI: From "Technological Catch-Up" to "Dual Dominance in Application and Cost" Cost-Effectiveness Crush: The cost of Chinese models is about $0.3 per million Tokens, while similar models in the U.S. are about $5, a price difference of over 16 times; developers in Europe and the U.S. are massively switching to Chinese APIs. Ecosystem Density: More than a dozen leading competitors such as Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Zhipu, and MiniMax are iterating quickly with fierce price wars; the U.S. has a dual monopoly of OpenAI and Google, with concentrated supply. Infrastructure: "East Data, West Computing" releases low-cost green electricity and large-scale computing power in the West, with domestic Ascend/Huaguang chips being deployed on a large scale, supporting ultra-high concurrency and low-cost inference. 2. Token Economy: AI Becomes "Digital Water and Electricity", China is the Global "Computing Power Factory" The Essence of a Thousandfold Leap: AI is transitioning from the laboratory to being foundational infrastructure across various industries, with Tokens becoming the "digital traffic unit"; a daily average of 140 trillion Tokens makes China the largest computing power consumer in the world. More Quantity, More Value: While it appears to be "low price and high volume", the reality is a transfer of global pricing power—Chinese models are defining the global benchmark price for AI services, forcing European and American manufacturers to lower their prices to compete. 3. Global Structural Change: The AI Center Shifts from the U.S. to China, Digital Economy Discourse Power Transfers Application Side Reversal: The U.S. leads in "model innovation", while China leads in application implementation and computing cost; starting in March, China has become the global AI application engine. De-dollarization Undercurrent: AI computing power settlement (Token payment) has introduced channels for RMB and stablecoins, with some Chinese model APIs supporting dual settlement in USDC/RMB, weakening the dollar's hegemony in digital services [__LINK_ICON]. 3. Direct Impact on BTC/ETH (Short-term + Mid-term + Long-term) Short-term (1–3 months): Strongly positive, driving the "AI + Computing Power + Crypto" narrative Revaluation of Computing Power (BTC benefits the most) The AI explosion is driving up global computing power demand and electricity prices; Bitcoin mining (energy-intensive) scarcity and value reinforcement align with the "digital gold + energy settlement" narrative. Mining Company Transformation: BTC mining sites are transitioning to dual businesses of AI computing power and mining, with valuation logic shifting from "crypto cycle" to "AI growth + hedging", institutional funds flowing back into BTC [__LINK_ICON]. ETH: Triple Catalysis of AI + DeFi + Smart Contracts AI Agent Explosion: On-chain AI agents (such as Fetch.ai, Render) are being deployed on a large scale, making ETH the "on-chain settlement layer for AI", with Gas consumption and ecosystem demand surging. DePIN Computing Power Network: Distributed GPU networks on ETH (such as Render, Akash) are taking on AI inference orders, making ETH the core vehicle for "financialization of computing power". Market Sentiment: The narrative of "Chinese AI Hegemony + Global Computing Revolution + De-dollarization" resonates, with funds flowing into AI + crypto sectors, increasing volatility and upward trends for BTC/ETH. Mid-term (3–12 months): Structural benefits, clear differentiation BTC: Benefiting from strong energy prices + institutional hedging allocations + computing power scarcity, it is expected to oscillate upward, targeting 85k–90k. ETH: Benefiting from AI Agents + DeFi + on-chain computing power, it is more resilient, targeting 2800–3200; however, caution is needed regarding **high Gas + ecosystem competition (SOL/APT)** risks. Risk Points: Stricter AI regulations (U.S.-China data security reviews), excess computing power leading to price wars, macro liquidity tightening (Federal Reserve rate cuts not meeting expectations). Long-term (1–2 years): Reshaping Value Logic, BTC Becomes "Gold of the AI Era", ETH Becomes "Central Hub of the AI Economy" BTC: Large-scale adoption of AI is driving up global energy consumption, reinforcing BTC's attributes of "energy currency + decentralized value storage", making it a core hedging asset in the AI era. ETH: Deep integration of AI and blockchain makes ETH the settlement layer for the AI Agent economy + the execution layer for smart contracts, shifting its value from "cryptocurrency" to "token for AI digital economy infrastructure". 4. Key Price Levels + Operational Responses (Latest May) BTC Support: 77,000 (strong) / 75,500 (lifeline) Resistance: 80,000 (first) / 85,000 (strong) Operation: Light long positions at 77k–78k, stop loss at 75.5k; reduce positions near 80k, if it breaks 80k, look for 85k. ETH Support: 2,250 (strong) / 2,150 (lifeline) Resistance: 2,450 (first) / 2,800 (strong) Operation: Light long positions at 2,250–2,300, stop loss at 2,150; reduce positions near 2,450, if it breaks 2,450, look for 2,800. 5. Follow-Up Must-Watch (1–2 months) China AI Policy: Implementation of data security laws, AI computing power export controls (impacting global supply). Federal Reserve Policy: June rate cut expectations (impacting crypto liquidity). AI + Crypto Projects: Progress of AI tokens like Render, Fetch.ai, and the activity level of AI Agent applications on ETH.

1. Core of Iran's New Proposal (May 2, 2 PM Peace Plan) Iran submitted a new 14-point proposal to the U.S. through Pakistan, with the core being "end the war within 30 days," replacing the U.S. request for a "2-month ceasefire"[]. Key concessions (compared to the old proposal) Security: No insistence on the complete withdrawal of U.S. troops, changed to a written guarantee of no attacks + reduced troop presence[]. Strait of Hormuz: Changed from "Iran-led toll collection" to international co-management, ensuring navigation, giving up absolute control[]. Sanctions: Changed from "one-time full lifting" to first lifting the maritime blockade, then gradual easing[]. Nuclear issue: Changed from "hard guarantee of 60% enrichment" to phased reduction to within 20%, accepting verification[]. Compensation: $300 billion claim changed to negotiable[]. Core red lines (non-negotiable) A comprehensive solution within 30 days, rejecting only an extension of the ceasefire[]. No increase in U.S. troops around Iran, simultaneous peace on the Lebanese front[]. Unfreezing overseas assets + lifting sanctions is a final condition[]. U.S. response (May 1) Trump: "Not satisfied," but still willing to negotiate, while receiving military escalation briefings[]. Core differences: The U.S. wants to discuss nuclear + the Strait first; Iran wants to end the war + security guarantees first[]. 2. Direct Impact on Financial Markets + BTC/ETH (realized in the early hours of May 2) 1. Commodities: Oil prices plummeted (risk premium dissipated) WTI crude **-4%+ (from $78 to $74.5), due to expectations of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz**; 20% of global oil supply risk eliminated. Inflation expectations cooled → U.S. dollar weakened, U.S. Treasury yields fell. 2. Risk assets: U.S. stocks/crypto surged (safe-haven funds returned) U.S. stocks: Dow/NASDAQ **+1.5%+**, tech leading the way. Crypto market: Total market cap +$49 billion; BTC 76500→78500 (+2.6%); ETH 2250→2320 (+3.1%). Logic chain: Peace expectations → oil prices fall → inflation decreases → interest rate cut expectations rise → funds flow into risk assets (including crypto). 3. Safe-haven assets: Gold "rises against the trend" (safe-haven logic switches) Gold **+1.8% (V-shaped reversal), not "avoiding war" but avoiding the dollar**: U.S. dollar weakens + real interest rates fall → gold strengthens. 3. Exclusive Interpretation of BTC/ETH (Key) 1. Short-term benefits (realized) De-dollarization narrative strengthened: Iran has previously collected BTC tolls (1 dollar per barrel), the new proposal retains the option of "cryptocurrency settlement + RMB channel," consolidating BTC's dual attributes as "digital gold + energy settlement currency." Improved liquidity environment: Inflation expectations retreat → Fed interest rate cut expectations advance → favorable for high-volatility growth assets (ETH). 2. Medium-term risks (not priced) Negotiation volatility: Trump "not satisfied" → risk of talks breaking down remains high, could adjust at any time due to hawkish statements[__LINK_ICON]. Weekend liquidity is poor: After the benefits are realized, BTC 78500/ETH 2350 resistance is hard to break, likely to oscillate and fall from high levels. 4. Key Price Levels + Operational Response (Updated) BTC Support: 77000 (strong)/76500 (lifeline) Resistance: 78800 (first)/80000 (strong) ETH Support: 2280 (strong)/2250 (lifeline) Resistance: 2350 (first)/2400 (strong) Operations Do not chase highs: Benefits have been realized, reduce positions in the 78500+/2320+ range in batches. Buy on dips: Lightly buy near BTC 77000, ETH 2280, set stop-loss. Prevent volatility: Only light positions on weekends, not heavy, beware of sudden negative news from "talks breaking down." 5. Follow-up Must Watch (within 48 hours) U.S. formal response (whether to accept the 30-day framework). Signals of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz (tanker movements). Speeches from Fed officials (inflation/interest rate cut expectations recalibrated).

Key Catalytic Events in the Next 48 Hours (2026.5.3–5.5) + Key Price Levels for BTC/ETH + Operational Responses 1. Must Monitor Macro Catalytic Events (in order of priority) 1. Intensive Speeches by Federal Reserve Officials (Core Impact) Multiple Federal Reserve governors and regional Fed presidents will speak, key points to watch: whether they will re-anchor the interest rate cut timing, whether they will indicate that inflation remains sticky. Impact Logic: Hawkish → Stronger dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, bearish for BTC/ETH. Dovish → Renewed expectations for interest rate cuts, weaker dollar, bullish for crypto rebound. 2. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Services PMI Data Data exceeds expectations (strong economy) → Reinforces expectations for high interest rates, suppressing coin prices. Weak data (economic cooling) → Forces the Federal Reserve to cut rates subsequently, supporting BTC/ETH. 3. Expectations for U.S. and European Auto Tariffs The market is pricing in a 25% auto tariff + EU countermeasures, with fluctuating risk aversion. Logic: Rising risk aversion → Funds fleeing to the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, short-term pressure on crypto. 4. Daily Data on Net Inflows/Outflows of BTC Spot ETF Funds Continuous net inflows → Institutional support, difficult to break the lower range. Continuous large outflows → Directly leads to market corrections, support levels easily breached. 5. Unusual Movements in ETH Foundation Wallets, Large On-chain Transfers Large sell-offs/transfers to exchanges → Short-term selling pressure suppressing ETH rebounds. Static holdings with no movements → Emotional recovery, ETH expected to catch up. 6. Risk of Thin Liquidity Over the Weekend 48 hours across the weekend, trading volume in the crypto market shrinks, the probability of liquidation spikes, many false breakouts. 2. Key Support/Resistance Levels for BTC/ETH BTC Strong Support: 76500 – 77000 Weak Support: 75800 First Resistance: 79000 Strong Resistance: 80000 (round number) ETH Strong Support: 2200 – 2250 Weak Support: 2160 First Resistance: 2350 Strong Resistance: 2400 3. Three Market Scenarios + Corresponding Operational Strategies Scenario 1: Maintain Support Range (BTC≥77000, ETH≥2250) Judgment: Macro balance between bulls and bears, stable institutional ETF funds, maintaining high-level box fluctuations. Operation: Do not chase highs, buy in batches on support dips. Reduce positions at resistance levels, engage in range arbitrage. Never go all-in, avoid full positions due to poor weekend liquidity. Scenario 2: Volume Breaks Key Support BTC breaks below 76500, ETH breaks below 2200 and closes below. Trigger Reasons: Hawkish Fed speeches + ETF fund outflows + rising tariff risk aversion. Operation: Stop bottom-fishing, wait for a second bottoming stabilization. Reduce high positions to avoid deep losses. Backup support area below: BTC 73500–74000, ETH 2050–2080. Scenario 3: Volume Breaks Strong Resistance BTC stabilizes above 79000, ETH stabilizes above 2350. Trigger Reasons: Dovish Fed, continued strength in tech stocks, sustained net inflows into ETFs. Operation: Light positions to follow the trend, do not chase after rising prices. Set a trailing stop-loss after the breakout to prevent weekend spikes and pullbacks. 4. Strict Trading Discipline for 48 Hours Only light positions over the weekend, no heavy positions, avoid overnight high leverage. Do not guess the direction, follow the trend on breakouts, and trade within the range on support. ETH is currently weaker than BTC, prioritize BTC as the barometer, with ETH primarily following. Key Focus: The dollar index, U.S. Treasury yields, and ETF funds trio; any movement will reflect on coin prices.

Escalation of US-EU trade friction + NASDAQ hits a new high + US-Iran talks fluctuate + Fed rate cut expectations cool; BTC/ETH shows short-term fluctuations, neutral to bullish, with increased volatility. 1. Global Major Events (24 hours) 1️⃣ US-EU trade war escalates (risk is bearish) Trump announced a 25% tariff on EU cars imported to the US starting next week, and the EU stated it would "counteract in kind" []. Impact: Risk aversion rises, the dollar strengthens, risk assets come under pressure; European auto stocks plummet, and US stocks dive during trading [] . 2️⃣ US stocks: NASDAQ breaks 25,000 points for the first time (risk is bullish) NASDAQ closed at 25,114 points (+0.89%), S&P 500 also hits a new high; Apple rose nearly 5%, with a market value approaching $4.4 trillion, leading tech stocks. Drivers: Apple's better-than-expected earnings report + $100 billion buyback; AI and semiconductor sectors strengthen collectively. Impact: Risk appetite increases, growth assets benefit, indirectly favorable for the crypto market. 3️⃣ US-Iran talks fluctuate (neutral to bullish) Iran's foreign minister expressed willingness for unconditional dialogue, while Trump stated he was "not satisfied" with Iran's new proposal, but the talks have not broken down. Impact: Middle East risk premium declines, oil prices plummet (WTI -3.13% to $101.94), alleviating inflation concerns, favorable for risk assets. 4️⃣ Federal Reserve: Rate cut expectations cool (bearish) April meeting minutes show three officials opposed rate cuts, emphasizing the risk of inflation rebound; the market lowers the probability of rate cuts this year, and the dollar index strengthens to 98.16. Impact: High rate expectations suppress growth and crypto assets, with funds flowing back to the dollar. 5️⃣ Crypto market: ETH selling pressure + BTC fluctuations ETH: The foundation continues to reduce holdings (selling another 10,000 coins, cashing out about $23 million), raising concerns about selling pressure. BTC/ETH: 87,000 liquidations in 24 hours, BTC fluctuating in the $77,000–$79,000 range, ETH fluctuating between $2,280–$2,320 []. 2. Impact on Financial Markets US stocks: Tech stocks "stand out", NASDAQ/S&P hits new highs; trade war concerns suppress the Dow (-0.31%), market divergence intensifies. Dollar/US bonds: Rate cut expectations cool + risk aversion demand, the dollar strengthens; US bond yields fluctuate, with short-term yields suppressed by high rate expectations. Commodities: Oil prices plummet (geopolitical easing + profit-taking); gold fluctuates (risk aversion cools + dollar strengthens). Cryptocurrency: Macro mixed signals (tech benefits vs. high rate concerns), short-term fluctuations intensify, direction unclear, waiting for new catalysts. 3. Direct Impact on BTC/ETH ✅ Bullish Factors US tech stock frenzy, risk appetite spills over, institutional funds slightly flow into BTC spot ETFs. US-Iran talks easing, pressure from risk-averse funds decreases, BTC's "safe-haven attribute" temporarily retreats, with "risk asset attribute" dominating, following tech stocks upward fluctuations. ❌ Bearish Factors Fed rate cut expectations cool, prolonging the high rate environment, suppressing valuations of crypto and other high-volatility assets. ETH foundation continues to reduce holdings, short-term supply pressure limits ETH rebound potential. Escalation of US-EU trade friction, rising global economic uncertainty, funds flow back to traditional assets for safety, increasing volatility in the crypto market []. 4. Key Price Levels and Short-term Judgments BTC: Support at 77,000/76,500, resistance at 79,000/80,000; range fluctuations, a breakthrough requires new volume. ETH: Support at 2,250/2,200, resistance at 2,350/2,400; dragged down by reductions, weaker than BTC. Conclusion: Macro balance of bulls and bears, BTC/ETH maintains high-level fluctuations; short-term outlook depends on the strength of US stocks and the dollar, beware of weekend volatility and liquidation risks.

Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meeting Main Content and Interpretation 1. Basic Information of the Meeting (2026, First Meeting in the Post-Buffett Era) Date: May 2, 2026 (Omaha, local time) [__LINK_ICON] Core Change: Buffett (95 years old) steps back, new CEO Greg Abel leads the Q&A, marking the official start of the "Post-Buffett Era" [__LINK_ICON]. Key Data (Q1 Financial Report): Net Profit: $10.106 billion (up 120% year-on-year) [__LINK_ICON] Cash Reserves: $397.4 billion (historical high, nearly $400 billion) [__LINK_ICON] 2. Core Content (by Agenda) 1. Power Transition and Inheritance Philosophy Abel fully adopts Buffett's investment philosophy, proposing Berkshire's five cornerstones: Cash and Treasury Security Cushion ($397.4 billion cash = strategic confidence) Financial Independence (not dependent on anyone) Flexible Allocation (M&A/equity/repurchase/wait-and-see) Tax Efficiency Elimination of Arrogance/Bureaucracy/Self-satisfaction (ABC) [__LINK_ICON] Buffett's Positioning: Long-term Chairman, does not interfere with daily operations, only maintains strategic bottom line. 2. Huge Cash: "Not Lacking Opportunities, Lacking Good Prices" Cash nearing $400 billion, a historical high, core logic: Good opportunities are rare: better to hold cash than invest blindly; "It's not about being fully invested all the time to make a lot of money" [__LINK_ICON]. Cycle Defense: Cash is "bear market insurance," ensuring the ability to buy back in during crises [__LINK_ICON]. Repurchase Bottom Line: Repurchase decisively when stock price is below intrinsic value, otherwise hold cash [__LINK_ICON]. Interpretation: Cash = Options. Berkshire does not chase trends, only waits for opportunities when "prices are absurdly low," typical value investing "waiting for the best hitting zone" logic. 3. AI Attitude: Not Blindly Following, Focused on Practicality Abel clearly states: "We won't do AI for the sake of AI," AI must create substantial value for the business [__LINK_ICON]. Application Boundaries: ✅ Support: Risk control, cybersecurity, threat identification (e.g., deepfake risk warnings) [__LINK_ICON] ❌ Oppose: Blind transformation, concept hype, unproductive investments [__LINK_ICON] Buffett adds: AI is a tool, it does not change the essence of value investing; be wary of the potential risks of technology to society. Interpretation: Conservative and pragmatic. Not following the Silicon Valley "AI frenzy," insisting on "business value first," avoiding the trap of tech bubbles [__LINK_ICON]. 4. Holdings and Investment Direction Four Core Holdings (Heavy + Long-term): Apple: Largest holding, optimistic about ecosystem moat + cash flow [__LINK_ICON] American Express: Consumer recovery + payment network barriers [__LINK_ICON] Coca-Cola: Perpetual demand + high dividends, "forever holding" [__LINK_ICON] Japan's Five Major Trading Companies: Long-term holding for 50-60 years, valuing low valuation + high dividends + global resource layout [__LINK_ICON] Energy Transition: Layout in traditional energy (oil/gas) + new energy (wind/solar), emphasizing "energy security first" [__LINK_ICON]. Cybersecurity/Data Centers: Long-term outlook is positive, light assets + high certainty [__LINK_ICON]. Interpretation: Heavy moat + long-termism. Not chasing sectors, only buying "irreplaceable companies," holding periods measured in decades [__LINK_ICON]. 5. Macroeconomics and Risks: Cautiously Optimistic, Beware of Deficits U.S. Fiscal Deficit: Seriously unsustainable, worried about the risk of U.S. dollar credit devaluation ("Sword of Damocles"). Trade Policy: Criticizes the weaponization of tariffs, advocates for free trade; "The more prosperous the world, the more the U.S. benefits." U.S. Stock Valuation: Current valuations imply overly high growth expectations, but short-term volatility is normal, not bearish on the long term. Interpretation: Cautious on macroeconomics, optimistic on quality assets. Finding opportunities in crises, maintaining bottom lines in prosperity, not swayed by emotions. 3. In-depth Interpretation: Changes and Constants in the Post-Buffett Era Constants: Core Belief in Value Investing Buy companies, not stocks: Focus on long-term cash flow, moats, management, ignoring short-term stock price fluctuations [__LINK_ICON]. Margin of Safety: Buy low and sell high, do not chase high; cash is king, waiting for mispriced opportunities [__LINK_ICON]. Long-term Holding: Good companies "never sell," compounding is the greatest weapon [__LINK_ICON]. Changes: Execution Team More Focused on Operations and Capital Efficiency Abel's Style: Low-key, pragmatic, data-driven, more focused on operational details than Buffett. Power Structure: Buffett sets strategy, Abel manages execution, a dual-core stable structure. Market Expectations: "Buffett premium" fades, future performance relies more on solid operational profits rather than the "Oracle of Omaha halo." 4. Insights for Ordinary Investors Cash is Confidence: Retain sufficient cash, do not blindly go all-in, wait for certain opportunities. Focus on Moats: Only invest in irreplaceable, stable cash flow, high dividend quality companies, stay away from concept hype. Long-termism: Investment cycles measured in decades, ignore short-term fluctuations, earn compounding returns. Conservative and Pragmatic: Remain vigilant about new technologies/trends, prioritize business value over stories.

Stablecoin Sector Daily Briefing May 1, 2026 • The Hong Kong Monetary Authority issues the world's first licenses for stablecoin issuers, allowing HSBC and Anchor Financial Technology to issue Hong Kong dollar stablecoins. Promotion • Visa expands its stablecoin settlement pilot blockchain to 9 lines, with an annual settlement amount reaching $7 billion. • USDC circulation reaches $38 billion, with on-chain transaction volume accounting for over 70%, widely adopted by Meta, Visa, and Stripe. • Coinbase launches the CUSHY institutional stablecoin yield fund, supporting multi-chain tokenized share issuance.

US Macro Daily Briefing May 1, 2026 • The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time, with the largest divergence since 1992 at the meeting. • US core PCE and employment costs exceeded expectations, inflationary pressures remain. • Trump will hear a new military plan regarding Iran, as tensions between the US and Iran escalate. • 330,000 importers will receive $166 billion in tariff refunds, to be issued around May. Monetary Policy and Federal Reserve Dynamics 1. The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve has maintained the policy interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75% for the third consecutive meeting, with the largest divergence since 1992, as four members voted against. The market's expectations for a rate hike have slightly increased, and several institutions have postponed their expectations for a Fed rate cut. The outgoing Fed Chair Powell has clearly stated that he will remain on the Federal Reserve Board after his term ends on May 15, promising not to act as a "shadow chair," a decision that has almost no precedent in the history of the Fed. Incoming Chair Kevin Walsh is expected to officially take over from Powell on May 15, with the nomination already submitted to the Senate for final vote. 2. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett has repeatedly stated that now is the time for Powell to leave the Fed, as his continued presence on the Board may affect rate cuts; if the Fed or the European Central Bank raises rates, it would be a policy mistake; Walsh will not make any guarantees, and everything will be based on data. At the same time, Hassett stated that the Inspector General's investigation into the Fed respects the Fed's independence. 3. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged until June is 95%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 5%; the probability of maintaining rates unchanged until July is 87.9%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 11.7%, and a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at 0.4%. 4. Former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson stated that Powell's choice to remain on the Board after his term ends is primarily motivated by a desire to clear his tarnished personal reputation due to the Justice Department investigation. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, stated that Walsh needs to learn to build consensus rather than act unilaterally after taking charge of the Fed, and his true policy stance remains in question, as he previously held a hawkish position and expressed almost completely opposite views before his nomination. 5. The US core PCE price index rose 3.2% year-on-year in March and 0.3% month-on-month, in line with market expectations; the overall personal consumption expenditure price index rose 3.5% year-on-year in March, significantly higher than the previous value of 2.8%, reaching a new high since June 2023, which is a core inflation indicator closely monitored by the Fed. The annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index for the first quarter rose 4.3%, higher than the expected 4.1%. 6. The annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the US for the first quarter rose 2%, lower than the market expectation of 2.3%, with the final value for the fourth quarter of last year rising 0.5%; the employment cost index for the first quarter rose 0.9% month-on-month, higher than the expected 0.8%. As of the week ending April 25, the number of initial jobless claims in the US fell to 189,000, the lowest level since 1969, with an expectation of 212,000. 7. The Chicago PMI for April in the US was 49.2, lower than the expected 53, with a previous value of 52.8. The Conference Board's leading economic index for March fell 0.6% month-on-month, with an expectation of a 0.1% decline, and a previous value of a 0.1% decline. Personal income in the US grew 0.6% month-on-month in March, while personal consumption expenditure grew 0.5% month-on-month. As of the week ending April 29, the outstanding balance of commercial paper in the US, unadjusted for seasonality, increased by $13.9 billion. Geopolitical and Energy Dynamics 1. US President Trump will hear a report on a new military plan regarding possible military actions against Iran from the US Central Command on April 30 local time. Trump stated that due to Iran's "stubborn" behavior, there are many issues in negotiations with Iran, and the possibility of continued hostile actions cannot be ruled out, nor can the breaking of the ceasefire agreement be excluded. The plan developed by the US military aims to launch a short and intense strike against Iran, potentially targeting Iranian infrastructure, while another plan focuses on controlling parts of the Strait of Hormuz to restore commercial navigation. Iran has responded by stating that even if the US launches a limited attack, it will retaliate with prolonged and painful strikes. Iranian President Raisi stated that the US's actions under the guise of a maritime blockade are a continuation of military actions, and such oppressive practices are intolerable. 2. A senior White House official revealed that the US government is seeking to seize two oil tankers previously intercepted by the US Navy that are linked to Iran. The US Treasury Secretary disclosed that the US has seized nearly $500 million in Iranian crypto assets. 3. Trump stated that oil prices will immediately drop after the end of the Iran war, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is unbelievable, as the US has already destroyed Iran's nuclear capabilities. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that the government is considering measures to quickly increase US oil production, making every effort to reduce short-term oil shocks, with futures markets expecting oil prices to drop significantly, and oil flow will increase unprecedentedly after the Strait of Hormuz is opened. 4. Gasoline prices in California have surpassed $6 per gallon for the first time since 2023, reaching a three-year high, with fuel prices across the US surging nearly 30 cents in a week, mainly due to the continued shrinkage of California's refining capacity, with gasoline production falling to a ten-year low, compounded by the impact of limited crude oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. 5. The US government is seeking to borrow up to 92.5 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The US Energy Information Administration reported that US jet fuel demand fell to a one-year low in February, with gasoline demand decreasing by 1.1% year-on-year, while total oil demand increased by 4.5% year-on-year. Last week, US EIA natural gas inventories increased by 79 billion cubic feet, with an expectation of an increase of 80 billion cubic feet. 6. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has come to a standstill, and the US State Department has proposed forming a new alliance called the "Maritime Freedom Framework" led by the US, calling on other countries to join. This alliance will be responsible for sharing intelligence, coordinating diplomatic actions, and enforcing sanctions to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The debt will exceed $40 trillion, and the current US debt level has surpassed 100% of GDP. The US Treasury announced that the interest rate for the new I-series bonds for the next six months is 4.26%.

May 1 Middle East Situation ① Iran 1. Iranian Foreign Minister: U.S. and Israeli aggression is the root cause of regional turmoil. 2. Iranian President: Any maritime blockade violates international law. 3. According to the Iranian Students' News Agency: The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that expecting quick results from negotiations with the U.S. is unrealistic. 4. Iranian MP Manouchehr Mottaki: A blockade means declaring war. A decision may be made tomorrow or next week to remove these obstacles through military action. 5. Iranian Supreme Leader: Iran will never lose the Strait of Hormuz. Iranians will protect the country's scientific and production capabilities. 6. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi told Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida that Tehran is ready to resume diplomatic channels once Washington changes its behavior. 7. Commander of the Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mousavi, stated that even if the U.S. attack is limited, Tehran will respond with "long and painful strikes." 8. The Iranian President and Speaker are seeking to replace the Foreign Minister, citing that he "succumbed to the Revolutionary Guard." ② United States 1. Trump claims he may need to break the Iran ceasefire agreement. 2. The U.S. military plans to strike Iran with hypersonic missiles, marking the first real combat deployment. 3. U.S. media: The U.S. proposed forming an alliance to restore shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. 4. U.S. media: The U.S. government seeks to "seize" two oil tankers linked to Iran. 5. U.S. media: Trump will receive a briefing on new plans for action against Iran on Thursday, including strong strikes and partial control of the Strait of Hormuz. 6. According to a reporter from the Washington Examiner: A senior official stated that the White House is actively engaging with congressional lawmakers regarding today's request for a 30-day reauthorization of the Iran war deadline. 7. U.S. House Speaker Johnson stated that the U.S. is not in a state of war with Iran. Congress does not need to vote on military actions against Iran. ③ Israel 1. Israeli Defense Minister Katz: We may soon need to take action again to ensure our objectives in Iran are achieved.

What has Trump been busy with in the past 24 hours? 1. Discussing with oil executives about maintaining the blockade on Iran for several months—White House officials said Trump met with oil and gas company executives on Tuesday, where attendees discussed "the steps Trump has taken to alleviate the global oil market, and measures that can be taken to maintain the current blockade for several months while minimizing the impact on American consumers if necessary." 2. Stating that the blockade on Iran will not be lifted until the nuclear issue is resolved—Trump stated that the maritime blockade would not be lifted until a nuclear agreement with Iran is reached. He claimed the blockade is "more effective than bombing," that Iranians are "suffocating like fat pigs," and warned that "they cannot have nuclear weapons," as Iran hopes to reach a reconciliation. 3. Will hear new military proposals regarding Iran: including strong strikes and control of the Strait—Insiders said Trump will hear about potential new military action plans regarding Iran on Thursday. It is reported that the Central Command has prepared a "short and powerful" strike plan. Another plan involves controlling parts of the Strait of Hormuz to restore shipping, which may involve ground troops. 4. Responded to by the Iranian Speaker: Oil wells haven't exploded, oil prices will explode—Trump previously warned that Iran's oil storage capacity would run out in three days, and oil wells would explode due to pressure. Iranian Speaker of Parliament Ghalibaf mocked in a post: Three days have passed, and the oil wells haven't exploded! He suggested extending it to 30 days and live-streaming the oil wells, claiming oil prices will exceed $140. 5. Strongly supports UAE's exit from OPEC—On Wednesday, Trump stated that he strongly supports the UAE's decision to exit OPEC, claiming this move will help lower energy prices. He also mentioned, "There are indeed some issues within OPEC." 6. Spoke with Putin for an hour and a half—The Kremlin stated on the 29th that Russian President Putin spoke with Trump for over 1.5 hours. They discussed the Iran issue, as well as economic and energy cooperation. Putin proposed implementing a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine during the Victory Day celebrations on May 9, to which Trump responded positively, believing that an agreement on the Ukraine conflict is imminent. 7. Seemingly made a "ridiculous" verbal slip, confusing Ukraine with Iran—On Wednesday, Trump seemingly confused Ukraine with Iran. When asked which conflict would end first, Trump said it might be about the same time and claimed Ukraine has "failed militarily," but the data he provided pointed to Iran. 8. Mocked Powell for wanting to stay on as a board member: No one else wants him—Powell clearly stated in his last press conference during his term that he would continue to serve on the Federal Reserve Board after his term ends. Trump mocked in a post: "'Too late, Mr. Powell' wants to stay at the Fed because he can't find a job anywhere else—no one wants him." 9. Stated that the U.S. and Iran are in phone negotiations—On the 29th, Trump stated that the U.S. and Iran have been in dialogue, now communicating via phone, no longer needing to "fly 18 hours to see a document," and can know the answer within 15 minutes, although he prefers face-to-face communication. 10. Informed Netanyahu that military actions against Lebanon should be limited to "precision strikes"—On the 29th, Trump revealed that he informed Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that the Israeli military's actions in Lebanon should be limited to "precision strikes" and avoid a full resumption of hostilities. 11. May reduce U.S. troops stationed in Germany—On the 29th, Trump stated that the U.S. is studying and reviewing the possibility of reducing troops stationed in Germany, with a decision to be made soon. 12. The $1 million "Trump Gold Card" visa is cold—British media reported that since the U.S. launched the $1 million "Trump Gold Card" visa last year, only 338 people have submitted applications, of which 165 paid the $15,000 visa processing fee, and only 59 have entered the follow-up review stage by the Department of Homeland Security. 13. The first batch of tariff refunds will be issued around May 11—According to a document from the U.S. International Trade Court, the first batch of refunds for tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act on imported goods will be issued around May 11. 14. Will release as much information as possible about UFOs—On the 29th, Trump stated during a meeting with the "Artemis 2" mission astronauts at the White House that he will "release as much information as possible about unidentified flying objects (UFOs)" soon. 15. Will sign an executive order to expand retirement savings coverage—White House officials revealed that Trump will sign an executive order on Thursday aimed at expanding access for employees whose employers do not provide retirement savings plans.