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Market Thoughts June 26
US bond yields rose 2bps across the curve yesterday, with local highs of 4.5% on the 10-year and 5% on the 30-year as the SPX saw its first real weakness in this rally. Lots to unpack today.
In Asian trading, KOSPI and NKY are notably weaker. Kioxia 285A dropped 9% from its 83k US session high. Softbank, a high-beta name, fell 11%. SK Hynix is down 6%. Much of Asia runs on the memory ecosystem, so when that cracks, tread carefully.
Hong Kong continues to underperform the mainland. It's a battle between KWEB and KSTR. For those hunting discounts, KWEB has them on valuation. When it recovers is another story.
Overnight in the US, index-level weakness spread fast with roughly 10% drops across high-beta momentum names. LITE fell nearly 10%, the nuclear sector got hit, and SaaS lost about 10% as a group. CRWD earnings didn't help, punished with a 10% selloff. AVGO's earnings reaction was completely inverted compared to HPE and Dell, despite solid fundamentals. AVGO is now down 11%.
Is AVGO a warning sign? I don't think so. They didn't raise their $100B revenue target for 2027, which likely triggered the selloff. The earnings call showed strong demand extending into 2028, a positive for overall demand. But the comment about expecting some diversification for Google is more bullish for competitors like MRVL or Mediatek.
Neoclouds were broadly hit, down 5-10%. CRWV was the worst, falling 15% from the prior day's 130 high. IREN gave back all its announcement gains. I expect this stock to stay under pressure.
Crypto took a heavy hit with BTC dropping to a low of 61k. Two outliers held up well: HYPE and ZEC. Whether they can sustain this is another question. I mention crypto because it's quite reflexive to short-term liquidity and can be a useful indicator for index moves.
It's remarkable how much a single day can change things. Yesterday I talked about buying protection. Put skew is still cheap and affordable right now. Consider buyi...
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