It's 5.19 again, and the crypto outlook is at a glance: BTC is expected to reach $250,000?
Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author|Wenser (@wenser 2010 )
Another Year 5 · 19 .
After this morning's breakout of $107,000, the pullback followed: BTC fell below $103,000; ETH falls below $2400; SOL fell below $160. Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network has liquidated $618 million, of which $392 million in long orders and $227 million in short orders. ETH liquidation exceeds BTC. Still, there are quite a few people in the market who hold the view that BTC is about to break new highs, unlike our previous article in "Multiple Army Retreat VS Air Force Carnival: $100,000 Has Become BTC's "Maginot Line"? Many crypto market analysts and industry representatives choose to use their remarks to influence the market.
Odaily will summarize this in this article.
Bulls: A new high is imminent, first look at $116,000, less than $100,000 will become historyWith
the phased end of the Sino-US tariff trade war and the landing of various policy favorable factors frequently released by the Trump administration, many people believe that the crypto market is about to usher in a new wave of price highs represented by BTC, and the BTC target price has also increased from 11.6 Ten thousand dollars can range from $220,000 to even $250,000.
Traders predict BTC could break through all-time highs in the near term, with a price target of $116,000
Crypto trader Alan expects Bitcoin to break through all-time highs in the coming days, with a price target of $116, 000, noting that Bitcoin is currently in a converging triangle structure with decreasing volume, Indicates the possibility of wild swings.
In addition, traders Mikybull Crypto identified a "diamond pattern breakout" signal and saw price action on the strong side, while Daan Crypto Trades noted persistent spot contanguity on Coinbase, indicating positive buying in the US. Despite this, traders such as CrypNuevo caution that Bitcoin has not yet fully broken through the key resistance level and there may still be a risk of a pullback in the short term.
Whale James Wynn: BTC is unlikely to fall below $100,000
James Wynn posted that it would be nice if Bitcoin fell below $100,000, because it could increase its holdings or rise a little more, but unfortunately this is unlikely to happen.
Galaxy CEO: Bitcoin's next phase of price may be $13-150,000
In an interview with CNBC, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz said that given that the market value of gold assets is about $22 trillion, while Bitcoin's market cap is only $2 trillion, the price of Bitcoin in the next phase may be $13-150,000, from this point of view, it is still in the price discovery stage.
Analysts: Bitcoin may rise to $220,000 in 2025, and $250,000 is more than expected
Crypto analyst Apsk 32 said that Bitcoin followed gold to new highs and is a popular theory among long investors. Historically, Bitcoin has typically followed gold higher months after its rally. With gold rising to a record high of $3, 500 an ounce, the outlook for Bitcoin's future price action has also become brighter. Apsk 32 stands for the concept of a "power curve", which is a way to hedge against the effects of dollar inflation by measuring the price of bitcoin in gold ounces. If Bitcoin's network value (in gold) continues to evolve along the momentum curve, gold maintains its current price, and Bitcoin returns to its five-year lead, the $444,000 target could be seen this year. This week, though, Apsk 32 believes a more "reasonable" 2025 price target could be around $220,000. He also said that if the price of bitcoin breaks through $250,000, it will be in the range beyond expectations.
Analyst: Bitcoin could rise to $250,000 this year
Scott Melker, a crypto analyst and host of the podcast The Wolf of All Streets, said it was "entirely possible" for BTC to rise to $250,000 in 2025. He pointed to the continued influx of institutional investors and the decline in market volatility as key factors driving price increases. Scott Melker highlighted that the Bitcoin market is becoming more mature and stable with the participation of traditional financial institutions such as pension funds and ETF issuers, and that Bitcoin's volatility has fallen from less than three times that of the S&P 500 in the past.
In addition, Scott Melker also mentioned that Coinbase's inclusion in the top 50 of the S&P 500 index, the advancement of IPO plans by companies such as Galaxy Digital and eToro, and the improved regulatory environment in the United States have all provided strong support for the crypto market. While most analysts predict a cycle high of between $120,000 and $150,000, Melker believes that a 2.5x increase in the current price is not out of the question, given that Bitcoin rose from $3,000 to $69,000 in 2020, and that Ethereum's recent gains have outpaced Bitcoin's, driving small-cap tokens higher, indicating that there is "new money" flowing into the market, rather than just rotating between existing assets.
Mining Little Penguin: Has bought SOL based on large-level market judgment, BTC spot
trader @Goupenguin (Mining Little Penguin) posted that it has bought spot based on large-level market judgment near SOL $169.7 and BTC $103580, and said that it had missed out on gains in April due to Trump-related market shorting.
He said that although there is no clear judgment on the upside, he hopes that the market can continue to rise in the face of indicator divergence.
Opinion: "Copycat season" has not yet arrived, but institutional investors have begun to increase their holdings of SOL
Coin Bureau Nic Puckrin said in a post There is still a long way to go before the so-called "alt-season", and the current spot trading volume in the altcoin market is still below the levels of January 2025 and March 2024, and well below the levels of 2021.
However, some institutions have begun to increase their holdings of SOL before the arrival of the "copycat season", such as DeFi Development Corp's SOL holdings have exceeded $100 million, SOL Strategies has recently increased its holdings of more than 120,000 SOL, and the growth of new developers on the Solana chain has just surpassed Ethereum, with a year-on-year increase of 83%, developers are choosing Solana, and 65% of SOL is currently staked. Open interest is also rising.
Author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad": Save spot gold, silver, and BTC for the next crisis, not ETFs
Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad", said that in 1998 Wall Street united to bail out the hedge fund LTCM, and in 2008 the central bank bailed out Wall Street, each crisis gets bigger, the problem began in 1971 when Nixon abolished the dollar gold standard, and the next crisis may be triggered by the collapse of $1.6 trillion in student loan debt. For most people, the best way to protect themselves is to save themselves, so instead of buying ETFs, they can save spot gold, silver, and Bitcoin.
Fidelity: BTC acceleration phase continues, and it will continue to reach new highs before the end of this cycle
Fidelity Digital Assets posted that after 69 days of low profits and high volatility, Bitcoin's acceleration phase continues, a trend that reinforces the Fidelity team's thesis, That is, Bitcoin may reach another all-time high before the end of the current cycle.
CryptoQuant: Undervalued ETH is on the radar of ETF buyers, and the market could
reboundCryptoQuant previously reported that Ethereum's (ETH) market capitalization-to-realized value ratio (MVRV) relative to Bitcoin (BTC) fell to its lowest level since 2019, suggesting that ETH may be undervalued. Historical data shows that at similar levels, ETH typically rises significantly and outperforms BTC. Since the end of April, the proportion of ETH/BTC ETF holdings has risen significantly, indicating that institutional investors expect ETH to outperform BTC, likely driven by the recent Pectra upgrade and improved macroeconomic conditions. On-chain data shows that ETH has seen less selling pressure and increased trading volume, supporting its potential uptrend. With the ETH/BTC price ratio now rebounding 38% from its January 2020 lows, investors and traders are betting that ETH has bottomed out, potentially triggering a new "altcoin season."
Matrixport: The bull-bear indicator is back in bullish territory, and Bitcoin may reach new
highs Matrixport said in its market analysis that its market capitalization-to-realized market capitalization ratio bull-bear indicator has re-entered bullish territory. Although the agency's technical analysis is usually ahead of on-chain data, indicator reversals are still important references. Matrixport notes that such indicators are rare to have a trend reversal in the short term, but a similar scenario occurred in 2020 and was interpreted as a slowdown in the cycle. If the indicator maintains positive momentum, Bitcoin may be able to challenge new all-time highs.
Legendary Investor Tim Draper: I've been buying more BTC all the time
Venture capital legend Tim Draper said in an interview, "I've been buying more bitcoin all the time." Back in 2014, he bought 29, 656 BTC for about $19 million through a Federal Enforcement Agency auction in the United States, with an average price of about $640. The BTC originated from assets seized by the U.S. government during the Silk Road enforcement operation. Draper has repeatedly expressed his long-term bullishness on Bitcoin, believing that it can bring liquidity to emerging markets and hedge against the risk of currency depreciation.
Bitcoin fees hit a new high this year, and illiquid supply hit a new high
The 7-day average fee on the Bitcoin chain rose to $2.40, up about $1 from the beginning of May and hitting a new high for the year. Glassnode data shows that the long-dormant "illiquid supply" of BTC has reached an all-time high, which means that there is less BTC available for trading on exchanges, which could trigger a supply shock and further push up prices in the future if demand rises. At the same time, Bitcoin's market dominance has rebounded after a previous pullback, which may indicate that its short-term pullback relative to other crypto assets is more affected by liquidity than a structural shift in the market to the "altcoin season".
Cautious optimism: ETH support is limited, don't be carried away by the sentiment of the options market
In the process of rapid recovery of market prices, in addition to the highly optimistic view, there are still some crypto analysts who believe that the price increase, especially the rise of ETH, has not received enough value support, and the positive sentiment of the options market should not be used as the only basis.
Greeks.live: Options data showed positive market sentiment, but remained cautious in the short term
Greeks.live analyst Adam previously posted, "May 16 options delivery data: 27,000 BTC options expiration, Put Call Ratio of 1.03, the biggest pain point of $100,000, notional value of $2.76 billion." 220,000 ETH options expire with a Put Call Ratio of 1.36, a maximum pain point of $2,300, and a notional value of $570 million. This week's Bitcoin delivery data is almost the same as last week, and Ethereum is similar except for the price factor. At present, the market sentiment is very good, but the options data shows that there are still not many mainstream currency holders, and the profit makers are limited. At present, Bitcoin's short- and medium-term RV has fallen below 35%, and the medium- and long-term are all around 50%, but the IV decline is more obvious, almost all of them have fallen below 45%, so the VRP of each maturity has fallen.
Thedelivery volume is less than 9% of the total position, and the proportion of put options continues to be high this month, which may not change significantly until June, and the market is more optimistic about the next market, but there are not many people who are long BTC in the short term. "
Analysis: ETH's recent rally is mainly driven by technical factors, and the willingness to allocate broadly may remain limited
David Duong, head of research at Coinbase Institutional, posted that ETH experienced a price increase last week that was largely driven by technical factors. The analysis noted that the rally reflected short covering and subsequent position adjustments by a large number of traders in the wrong positions in the market, allowing ETH's price action to catch up with other major coins such as BTC and SOL. However, David believes that despite this price performance, it may indicate that the market's willingness to allocate more broadly to ETH is still relatively limited.
Grayscale: Bitcoin's market dominance is declining, but it doesn't mean that the "copycat season" is coming
Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market (BTC Dominance) has declined recently, and analysts note that this does not mean that the "copycat season" is coming. Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, said that Bitcoin's dominance could rise when the market focuses on macroeconomic instability and risks to the US dollar; And when the market focuses on the various applications of blockchain technology and innovations in the crypto sector, Bitcoin's dominance may decline. In addition, he mentioned: "In the next timeframe of about 9 to 12 months, it is more likely that Bitcoin's market share will stabilize between 60% and 70% of the overall crypto market, rather than see a significant decline." "
Event-driven decline: A few currencies such as ETH, XRP, DOGE have been affected,
and in addition to the overall market sentiment, the main reason for the decline is the conductive impact of event factors such as local policies or the interpretation of the U.S. stock market on the crypto market.
ETH, XRP, DOGE fell about 3% after Moody's downgraded U.S. credit ratings
Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating to Aa 1 from Aaa, citing widening deficits, rising interest payments, and a lack of political will to rein in spending. As a result, the prices of major cryptocurrencies fell, with Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Dogecoin (DOGE) all falling by about 3%. As of now, ETH is trading at $2, 494.35, DOGE is trading at $0.2175, and XRP is trading at $2.38.
It is reported that the rating downgrade triggered a risk-off mood in the market, which led to a rise in US Treasury yields and a fall in S&P 500 futures, affecting both traditional and crypto markets. Moody's also became the third major rating agency to downgrade the U.S. rating, after Standard & Poor's (2011) and Fitch (2023).
Analysts: The market overreacted to the attack on Coinbase, and the SEC investigation triggered a drop in stock prices
Coinbase shares fell 7.2% on Thursday, May 16 (last Friday) after the company disclosed that it had suffered a social engineering attack that led to a customer data breach and confirmed that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was investigating the disclosure of user data in its 2021 initial public offering (IPO) filings. Analysts note that the market may have overreacted to the news. Analysts at two investment banks, Barclays and Oppenheimer, said the hack was isolated and that Coinbase had pledged to compensate affected customers. The SEC's investigation has nothing to do with current disclosures and is instead targeting user growth metrics that the company has used in the past.
The Wisconsin Investment Board liquidated $350 million worth of Bitcoin spot ETF holdings
It is understood that the Wisconsin Investment Commission (SWIB) in the United States will fully liquidate about 6 million shares of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in the first quarter of 2025, with a market value of about $350 million at that time. The institution previously significantly increased its holdings in the ETF at the end of 2024, becoming one of the first U.S. state pensions to invest in Bitcoin spot ETFs. The exit comes against the backdrop of a drop in the price of Bitcoin by about 12%.
Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund Mubadala increased its holdings of IBIT to about $409 million in the same quarter, showing a divergence in institutional investors' allocation strategies to Bitcoin ETFs.