BTCcore should quickly hard fork with BTCetf
Yesterday marked a historic moment. The Senate passed the "Stablecoin Payment Act" with a vote of 63:37—the world's first national-level stablecoin regulatory framework was born. The short-term impact is limited, but the long-term narrative could become the biggest driver for BTC price growth by 5-10 times, giving the crypto world its own Fed central bank attributes. Immediate benefits: 1. Compliance of fiat channels (banks can directly issue stablecoins) 2. Clear custody rules for RWA asset issuance 3. U.S. Treasury bonds will become core reserve assets (the act requires 100% reserves) Short-term impact: 1. Increased cost of stablecoin issuance (compliance costs within the banking system eat into profits) 2. USDC may surpass USDT (amplified compliance advantage) 3. On-chain TVL growth may slow down (short-term liquidity siphoning effect) Huge long-term narrative transmission: Stablecoin issuing institutions may become the largest buyers of national debt in the future. When the stablecoin scale breaks through $3 trillion (currently $160 billion), it will trigger a triple reconstruction: 1. U.S. Treasury liquidity reconstruction: If stablecoins hold 5% of U.S. Treasury bonds (currently 0.6%), it is equivalent to Japan's holding level. 2. Monetary policy transmission reconstruction: The crypto market may become a "parallel interest rate system." 3. Economic governance weight reconstruction: The game between DAO Treasury vs Sovereign Debt. Let's make a crazy but quantifiable assumption: When BTC market cap reaches $10 trillion (currently $1.2 trillion, meaning BTC grows 5-10 times): 1. Institutions mortgage BTC to borrow stablecoins → Minting volume +$300 billion (at 30% collateral rate) 2. Stablecoin issuers purchase U.S. Treasury bonds → Lower 10-year yield by 15-25bps (according to IMF bond liquidity model) 3. Low interest rate environment stimulates BTC as a deflationary asset premium → Enter the next cycle The model requires simultaneous satisfaction of: 1. No black swan-level de-pegging event occurs (referencing the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank USDC crisis) 2. BTC volatility drops to gold levels (currently 80% vs gold 15%) When BTC price increases by 5-10 times, volatility will naturally decrease significantly. Ultimate form: When the "DeFi central bank" controls $10 trillion in liquidity, their U.S. Treasury trading instructions may influence FOMC decisions—this might be the true realization path of Satoshi's "censorship-resistant financial system." We are witnessing Currency Wars 2.0.
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