Currently disproven tracks:
GameFi (recently showing slight improvement)
SocialFi (Kaito found another good angle)
DeFi (unclear returns, extreme issues with airdrops/expected value anchoring)
Layer2 (false demand)
NFT (pricing issues)
BTC ecosystem (doesn't even need examples)
Mixers
Inscriptions, Runes
Tracks with strong technology but misaligned market demand:
Staking (retail investors cannot participate)
ZK (very strong technology)
LSD
DePIN (inferable but not trainable)
Modularization (low demand)
Chain abstraction (low demand)
Cross-chain bridges (low demand)
Cloud computing (unverified)
Privacy (low demand, far from capital)
Intent (inexplicable)
Prediction markets (Poly dominates)
Layer3
——————————————————
Opinion alert:
Tracks I personally favor:
Payments (PayFi)
Some RWA
Derivatives
Sui ecosystem
DEX
Stablecoins
Oracles
CeFi
BTC mining
MCP (AI iteration)
FHE
Agent
Storage
MEME
Data analysis
Protocol layer products
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