Sharing one of my own strategies, which is purely gambling. I do not recommend others to follow.
I have already sold $MSTR at an average price of $411 and plan to buy $Coin tomorrow. The logic is to bet on Coin's rise on Monday, but there are preconditions.
1. Coin must drop nearly 10% today.
2. Coin must drop more than 5% tomorrow.
3. If these conditions are met, buy Coin before the market closes tomorrow.
4. Sell it at Monday's opening, no holding.
The main gamble is that Coin will experience "Sell the News" over the past two days. If the drop is significant during these two days, there is an expectation of a rise when it officially lists on Nasdaq on Monday.
I ran an analysis using AI, and most stocks tend to rise on their first day of listing on Nasdaq, but the increase is not significant, usually less than 1%, due to "Sell the News." Then, there's a high likelihood of a drop on the second day.
My bet is based on two points:
1. A continuous two-day drop, returning to oversold levels.
2. A rise of over 1% at the opening.
The reasoning is that the average increase after announcing a Nasdaq listing is 8%, but Coin has already risen nearly 30% in two days. Investors may experience FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) for the first cryptocurrency stock listed on Nasdaq.
What I aim to do is wait. If the drop over these two days intensifies, the probability and magnitude of Monday's rise will increase. Therefore, no holding. Of course, the expected rise is not high; this is purely a gamble.
Additionally, I am not certain I will buy, so I do not recommend others to follow.
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