Additional thoughts on Virtuals Genesis Launch / Virgen Points
Turns out @RWAIAgent playbook works — allocating a small part of tokenomics to KOLs at >5x starting FDV with some lockups and partial unlock at TGE.
End result: 1,074% oversubscribed with ~50m points contributed to the sale. If you put in 100k points, you're only getting 0.08%. To max out allocation (0.5%) on RWAI, you'd need 650k points (vs. 350k points for NIYOKO to get max allo).
The impact of jeet jail shenanigans combined with private round KOL hype inflates the total points, leaving small retail players with minimal allocations.
The upside: no one loses money on the sale.
The downside: if the bug isn't fixed soon, playing this Genesis game might not be worth the opportunity cost. Better to back solid agent teams with proven products & track records.
RWAI playbook will likely be replicated more but this time with Virtual KOLs getting allocations (instead of outsiders). Hopefully, this comes with more transparency around tokenomics.
Current launchpad iteration makes it tough for bigger projects to launch — they can't raise from VCs or strategics at high valuations (for runway & operations).
^ The only viable option now: launch two tokens — an agent token representing the AI agent and an ecosystem token that accrues the majority of revenue streams. (But this model isn’t sustainable long-term, as airdropping the eco token to keep the community happy often leads to dumping of the AI agent token.)
But... who knows, we might see more success stories of small teams hitting $100m+ valuations from launching on Genesis, and bigger teams launching AI agent tokens with a product that can sustain the PA for both tokens.
Genesis launches can be a goldmine — only if you play the allocation game strategically
Note: I blacked out the section on the right because I don't have historical data points on "Total # Points Contributed," so I couldn’t calculate point valuations for past projects. If you have this data, would appreciate it if you could share — e.g., for BasisOS, Triviagent, ho11yw00d, and other hyped launches.
Some initial insights from Virtuals Genesis Launch
- The ROI hinges on project selection—your point could be worth $0.3+ per point if you invest in a good project OR <$0.01 if you're in a sub-par one
- Yapping for points remains the easiest and most efficient way to rack up points
- Holding $VIRTUAL and other agent assets just to farm points isn’t worth it—you earn an insignificant amount compared to yapping (unless you’re holding 5-6 figs)
- The example in the spreadsheet shows 100k points invested in a project with 26M points contributed. You get around 0.14% of total supply. If your alloc sells at $4M FDV, that’s a clean 20x return—pretty decent
- This is modeled after the NIYOKO sale, which was over-hyped with too many points flowing into the launch. Turned out okay for participants, but the opportunity cost could be high when multiple quality projects are launching at once (so pick wisely)
- None of the hyped genesis launches have gone below their starting valuation
- Earlier launches had higher upside potential because $VIRTUAL was trading at a lower valuation (ho11yw00d’s starting FDV was just $68K vs. NIYOKO’s $200K thanks to $VIRTUAL price) + there were fewer points contributed (= you got a bigger % allocation)
Note: This is only prelim model, I'm waiting for @virtuals_io / @miratisu_ps to share more data points so I can do more extensive analysis on points valuation
From doing @pendle_fi YT points calculation to @virtuals_io points calculation. We're going back full circle lol.
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