A project I invested in a year ago launched on Binance Alpha today, and I received a bunch of congratulatory messages. I also saw some Twitter comments assuming I recently transitioned into being an investor, which shows that people don't really understand the KOL round deeply. In reality, projects that were invested in earlier and are only now having their TGE (Token Generation Event) are unlikely to make money, even if they launch on Binance Alpha or even Binance spot trading. This tweet is just a simple sharing based on my own experience. The KOL round has essentially become a thing of the past. However, many projects invested in one or two years ago are only now gradually having their TGE. Back then, the KOL round was at its peak and was almost equivalent to a small VC round. For project teams, setting up a round with favorable conditions is a way to gain support. However, the number of KOLs who can truly bring in significant buying power in the Chinese community is quite limited, so the main goal is to gain exposure and publicity. For KOLs, it provides an additional channel to participate in quality projects, and the investment cycle is usually much shorter than that of VC rounds. This format was initially very popular with both sides. I started actively investing during the mid-to-late bear market and invested in dozens of projects in total. Projects that successfully launched on Binance or Upbit spot trading include IP, IO, AEVO, MOVE, ATH, MOCA, etc. Additionally, there are about a dozen projects that launched on second- or third-tier exchanges. Generally, as long as the token was issued during the bull market's upward phase, combined with hedging strategies, the returns were usually good. However, projects that only launched in the past few months, regardless of their background, are unlikely to break even—even if they launch on Binance spot trading. Moreover, there's typically a lock-up period of 12-24 months to endure, and some projects simply don't issue tokens or take any action at all. By now, I believe you can see the issue. The core factor determining the profitability of the KOL round is actually the timing of the investment and the TGE. During the bear market, it's easier to invest in major projects at low valuations with favorable unlocking terms. In contrast, during the bull market, valuations are inflated, and project teams impose many strict terms to constrain KOL behavior. This often results in months of promotional tweets, only to end up losing money. Naturally, fewer people are willing to participate under such conditions.
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