Tariffs have initiated a recession in QII 2025 - or, will be a recession if tariffs continue for another 3 months (100 days?).
This is not surmise but hard data presents this without much room for debate.
The level year over year rolling, year over year annual change in %, and
.....quarter over quarter rate of change (not annualized - get a drift of how dramatic this is in your mind 4x the rolling quarter over quarter.
the tariff charges - and without any debate that tariffs are a tax are now 150 billion rolling annual (trailing) and if in annualized current they are going to be well in excess of 400 billion per year, or 1.3% hit/drag/tightening/screw change downwards in NGDP.
at the same time, Trump Chaos and various strats to outlast this looniness or to hide until the actual tariff rate is forthcoming. every single one of Trump tariff EO are in percolation and all have merit and all will be in front of SCOTUS in 2025 to 2026 session, clipped NGDP
this is not a "call" but is reporting/depicting current NGDP and the econ. it has already happened and is on trend to get worse.
what can happen is Trump on I "want to live" realizes the error of tariffs and swings to free trade as far as level goes but moves to controlling setting currency. so far no signs of that though was presented first I am aware by @michaelxpettis decade ago.
the only way to remedy China deficit is to drive/set Yuan to 4, just as US imposed upon Japan late 70s and into 80s. (400 to low of 82)
however this likely raise such internal chaos in China that CCP/Xi do all they can to not let Yuan richen below 7. my "call" is if yuan to even 5 China risks fracturing.
anyway, back to tariffs and the here and now. the march of tariff beautiful revenue will set Trump as the first POTUS to have recession in his first year in office. this destroys GOP for Congress in 2026
I am usually a month or two ahead of folks this time I think the market developing all the above as a consensus is only weeks away if not already in place.
The Great Recession of 2025 has started.
BTC to well below 10,000
homes -25%
SP500 to 4000
US Treasury 10 year to 2% low.
All the adverse moves will take place in 2 to 3 massive drops made in a week.
all upside here on will be discreet grind
in dotcom end of LTCM, Enron, Global Crossing and so on...
this is all caused by Trump. all of it. remove Trump this is prevented.
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