People are finally realizing we’re not getting a traditional alt season - just rotating pockets of liquidity. These aren’t broad risk rallies; they’re isolated bursts driven by narratives or positioning.
Forget “retail is coming.” The real question is whether the current active players are risk-on or risk-off. If they’re pressing, ceilings rise and if they rise high enough, they start pulling in the semi-retired money sitting on the sidelines.
What matters is what flips that switch: narratives, breakouts, macro shifts.
Spot the pocket early, press when the odds tilt. That’s the edge now.
I've held this view since September and reiterated it start of year.
Interesting to come back to the comments and the polls half a year later.
Seeing a lot of discussion around "alt season," here are some thoughts.
One could argue (myself included) that we’ve already been witnessing it, but in phases:
- Memes: Starting with PEPE, WIF, BONK and then followed by Murad coins.
- AI: Billions materializing out of thin air - AI infra trade being the L1 trade.
- Dyno Coins: The recent pumps across many of the old guard.
The reason it may not feel like 2021 is the liquidity landscape - it’s simply not what it was. We’re no longer in an era of macro easing, where money flowed freely, stimulus checks were abundant, and everyone was sitting at home gambling away.
Instead, alt season has become more PvE within specific sectors, driven by liquidity constraints.
As the saying goes, history doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. In our profession you must adjust and never be rigid, where market goes we follow.
Do you think alt season has already been in full swing, just playing out differently, or is it still ahead?
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